Among the recent changes in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards intelligence system and special operations, the appointment of Javad Ghaffari caught my eye. Ghaffari was moved from his post as head of the Quds Force in Syria (the unit that advances the Iranian entrenchment in Syria) to command the Revolutionary Guards Special Operations (Unit 4000). The overall responsibility for the Syrian theater was transferred to the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon, and a subordinate junior commander was appointed for Syria.
Three observations why special attention should be paid to this appointment:
1. The strategic importance to Iran of entrenchment in Syria has weakened – apparently there are more pressing issues.
2. This is another indication of the weakening of the Quds Force, which is returning to its more natural proportions – before the revolution by Soleimani when he attempted to make the Force the military arm responsible for spreading the revolution.
3. Iran is strengthening its special offensive capabilities in Iran, rather than entrench throughout the Middle East
Keep in mind: Evident here are organizational learning, necessary conclusions, and significant organizational change. It is premature to celebrate the Iranians’ misfortunes, and it is important to continue to heed the warnings of the Counter-Terrorism Bureau. Iran’s weakening at this time is evident, but its motivation remains high.
Among the recent changes in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards intelligence system and special operations, the appointment of Javad Ghaffari caught my eye. Ghaffari was moved from his post as head of the Quds Force in Syria (the unit that advances the Iranian entrenchment in Syria) to command the Revolutionary Guards Special Operations (Unit 4000). The overall responsibility for the Syrian theater was transferred to the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon, and a subordinate junior commander was appointed for Syria.
Three observations why special attention should be paid to this appointment:
1. The strategic importance to Iran of entrenchment in Syria has weakened – apparently there are more pressing issues.
2. This is another indication of the weakening of the Quds Force, which is returning to its more natural proportions – before the revolution by Soleimani when he attempted to make the Force the military arm responsible for spreading the revolution.
3. Iran is strengthening its special offensive capabilities in Iran, rather than entrench throughout the Middle East
Keep in mind: Evident here are organizational learning, necessary conclusions, and significant organizational change. It is premature to celebrate the Iranians’ misfortunes, and it is important to continue to heed the warnings of the Counter-Terrorism Bureau. Iran’s weakening at this time is evident, but its motivation remains high.