11th Annual International Conference: Panels and Keynote Speakers

This panel discussion, moderated by Washington Post columnist David Ignatius and featuring Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin, The Hon. Michèle Flournoy, Dr. Avner Golov, and Amb. Emanuele Giaufret, addressed President Trump’s first year in office and reviewed possible policy directions on the part of the American administration in the coming year. Topics included the U.S. embrace of Israel’s positions regarding the peace process with the Palestinians, measures to counter Iran’s influence, and the lessons to be drawn from developments on the Korean Peninsula.

The Trump Administration’s chief counterterrorism official, Ambassador Nathan Sales, reviewed the leading threats in the region and discussed the current American administration’s efforts to counter them. Emphasis was on Iran’s malign influence in the region, including through proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and other terror organizations. Ambassador Sales also announced a series of new terror designations.

Mr. Gabriel addressed the shifting geopolitics of a diminishing transatlantic relationship and dynamics closer to Israel, with focus on the presence of Iran in the region and the need to pursue a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The minister also noted the strong and flourishing Israeli-German relationship today.

This session examined the relations between the communities from the perspective of national security. How important are Israel’s relations with American Jewry to Israel’s national security? What elements affect this evolving relationship? What is the significance of the State of Israel’s status as the national homeland of the Jewish people within this context? What are the long range implications of this relationship, and how might the leaderships, communities, organizations, and publics in Israel and the United States work together to cultivate these relations?

Mr. Avigdor Lieberman, minister of defense, responded to questions posed by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin.  In response questions about Hezbollah’s building of missiles in Lebanon, and the possible need for boots on the ground, Defense Minister Lieberman stated that Israel is determined and ready.  Lieberman emphasized the need to include not just Hezbollah, but also Lebanon and Syria as part of the Northern Front.  Israel will end any flare up in the north as fast as possible with a decisive victory.  If given the choice, it’s better not to have soldiers on the ground, but Israel must be ready for that. In response to a question about the deal with Iran, Lieberman agreed it is a bad deal, stating that it gave legitimacy to Iran’s nuclear program, its military plans, and its missile development.  This deal put the Middle East into the nuclear weapons race.  Lieberman emphasized that Iran is a threat to the entire world, not just Israel, and Israel must convince the international community of this.

Zehava Galon, head of Meretz, spoke about Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, as being the greatest project of the governments of Israel, and the main threat to Israel.  The occupation should have been temporary and not fifty years long.  She noted that the Likud and Naftali Bennet discuss the “messianic fantasy” of annexation without citizenship, which is “apartheid,” in her terms. This project stops critical voices.  It seeks to destroy the courts, the press, the academia, civil society, whoever dares to criticize turns into an enemy of the state.  She notes the anti-democratic legislation taking place, the removal of women from public places, and so forth.  She claims that the people of Israel do not agree to this project and will not send sons to die for this, nor will we oppress Palestinians forever.

MK Naftali Bennet, minister of education, HaBayit Hayehudi, focused on Israel’s need to fight not only Iran’s proxy Hezbollah but also the host state of Lebanon, sending a message to Iran that a rocket from Iran via Lebanon will be treated as an Iranian rocket.  Israel should not restrict itself to attacking only Hezbollah, but it should also attack Lebanon should rockets be launched on us from Lebanon.   He emphasized the connection between the host, Lebanon, and the proxy or messenger, Hezbollah, which relies on the Shiite population in Lebanon, and noted that Hezbollah is the main military force in Lebanon, much more than the Lebanese army.

Maj. gen (ret.) Yoav Galant, minister of construction and housing, spoke about the Iranian threat to Israel, and stated that Israel must prepare itself for the Iranian reaction to the US cancellation of the Iranian deal.  Noting that Iran had held American hostages and had attacked US carriers in the past, he claimed that President Trump recognized a bad deal and that he has put the United States back on track by announcing that they will cancel the Iranian deal.  This leads to the possibility of military conflict between the United States and Iran, and if this should occur, then Israel will suffer the reaction from Hezbollah.  As for Israel, Israel is in a very different situation in dealing with these threats, as its relations with the United States, Russia, China are better than ever.  Israel has also learned lessons from the past, and we are more open to engage in threats because the conventional threats have weakened.  Galant underlines that Israel must prepare immediately for the Iranian response to the cancellation of the Iran deal. It may not happen, but Hezbollah is could be activated in the scenario between the United States and Iran.

MK Yair Lapid, head of Yesh Atid party, in his speech, spoke about the need to preserve the highest values in Israel, and especially in its national security.  Israel’s edge is its values; if they are not preserved in the army, for example, the army will be weakened.  People with values always make better officers. The army has one chain of command, and rabbis are not part of it.  The army will continue to recruit women and will show zero tolerance for those who refuse to serve. Lapid stated that Israel cannot give up its democratic identity, and that to do so, would be a weakness.  Democracy has created better soldiers, technology, economy, and so forth.  Israel must defend its democracy and its institutions. He noted that democracy is not just rights but also obligations. He concluded stating that our national security must be based on the right values.

MK Gilad Ardan, minister of public security, minister of information, and minister of strategic affairs, in his speech, talked about two challenges that the State of Israel has not yet internalized.  Those challenges are the two new threats of lone wolf terrorism and the delegitimization of Israel or the BDS movement.   Both threats rely upon the mobile phones and the internet.

Ambassador Satterfield addressed the 11^th Annual INSS International Conference, reviewing the three leading priorities of the United States in its policy toward the Middle East and North Africa. These included the fight against ISIS (Da’esh), efforts to counter Iran’s destabilizing influence across the region, and work with reformists in the region seeking to reverse decades of sclerotic political systems serving the interests of elites at the expense of populations.

This panel posed five questions to three senior leaders who have the potential to be elected prime minister so that the public will be familiar with their objectives.  The questions posed were 1. Does Israel meet the vision of its Zionist founders? 2. What is the main thing that you would do as Prime Minister? 3. How should Israel face the Iranian threat; 4. What would you suggest to Mahmud Abbas? 5. Which factors have brought about the loss of solidarity within Israel and how can we avoid it? At the panel’s conclusion, INSS Director Maj. Gen (ret.) Amos Yadlin remarked that all three leaders have a lot in common, as they all believe in the Zionist vision, place the people before themselves, and seek a political culture based on a respectful discourse.

In this panel, we focused on what lies ahead for the Middle East.  In 2011, there was optimism about the Arab Spring, and now in 2018, the region is still turbulent. Dr. Carmit Valensi presented three possible scenarios for the future: 1. A Shiite-Iranian hegemony in the region; 2. Sunni hegemony, led by Saudi Arabia; 3. A chaotic Middle East, characterized by civil war, ethnic tensions, lack of international involvement.  The panel was asked to consider how these scenarios might impact the policies of Saudi Arabia, the United Sates, Iran, and Russia.  The conclusions of the panel were not optimistic and predicted a chaotic Middle East in the future.

The National Security Index is an in-depth public opinion study conducted annually by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Since 1984, INSS has tracked trends in Israeli public opinion on topics associated with Israel’s national security, including perceptions of the threats and challenges facing Israel; the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; the Iranian threat; Israel’s northern arena; attitudes toward the IDF; fundamental national values; the preparedness of the civilian front; Israel-US relations; the contribution of American Jewry to national security; the role of the media from the perspective of security; and Jewish-Arab relations in Israel. Examining issues and processes in depth and over time on the basis of a broad and updating knowledge base, the National Security Index constitutes a singular resource on trends in Israeli public opinion. It describes the attitudes, perceptions, and opinions of the Israeli public on selected issues and analyzes their significance for national security, thereby attempting to assist decision makers and inform the public and media debate.

This panel brought together several policy makers and policy shapers, moderated by Maj. Gen (ret.) Amos Yadlin, head of the INSS.  The panel covered the potential of war with North Korea to the role of Europe in fixing the Iranian deal to the future of the United States in Syria, and to the importance of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman.

In his speech, the Hon. Jason D. Greenblatt stated that pursuing peace is a daunting, almost impossible task, but he believes that there is a path to peace despite all the rhetoric.  He has held meetings with Israel and with the Arab states, which are confronted by an aggressive Iran and a population that is eager for economic opportunity.  He said that he believed that the Arab world understood that Israel was not the problem and that Israel could be part of the solution.

The 11^th annual INSS conference opened with a keynote address by the Hon. Jason D. Greenblatt, Assistant to U.S. President Donald Trump and Special Representative for International Negotiations. Mr. Greenblatt’s address was followed by a keynote speech by the Chief of General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Gen. Gadi Eizenkot. The evening concluded with a panel discussion, moderated by INSS Executive Director, Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin, and featuring the Hon. Michèle Flournoy, Prof. François Heisbourg, Gen. David Petraeus, and Mr. Thomas Friedman.