Iraq and the Iraqi Shiite Militias

More than 100 missile and UAV launches toward Israeli targets: How has the activity of Iraqi Shiite militias changed since October 2023, and how should Israel respond?

The head of the Iraqi government is charting his country’s course very carefully. On the one hand, he is eager for US forces to remain in Iraq, and he wants to retain American support for his government. On the other hand, he hopes to tighten the connection with the pro-Iranian militias and with Iran. What challenges and obstacles does he face, and how might this situation affect Israel?

Read the INSS Strategic Analysis for 2023

An umbrella organization of dozens of primarily pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) has been operating in Iraq since 2014. This article focuses on the relations that have emerged between the PMF and the government. It analyzes why the state has anchored the organization’s status in law and strengthened it, even though the PMF’s leading militias are undermining Iraq’s sovereignty. It reviews the background causes, manifestations, and consequences of this phenomenon, and then assesses two possible hypotheses. The first hypothesis attributes the state’s attitude to its need for a military response to the emergency created by the rise of ISIS and the failure of the Iraqi army to halt it in 2014. The second hypothesis involves the network of connections that have developed between Iran, the Shi’ite militias, and the Iraqi government over the years, which has followed a patron-client arrangement. These connections have enabled Iran to intervene and exert its influence in order to strengthen the status of the Iranian-supported PMF. This analysis also addresses the significance of these relations for Israel, which became a target of attacks by these militias in Iraq during the Swords of Iron War.