Iran: Internal Affairs

How will the emerging changes in the Washington–Kyiv–Moscow triangle impact Tehran?

Against the backdrop of Iran’s weakening: How does Israel’s potential involvement in destabilizing the Iranian regime align with its overarching objectives in the broader campaign against Tehran?

The “trial runs” Iran has conducted for its security doctrine over the past year, in the form of deploying proxies surrounding Israel and launching hundreds of missiles and UAVs toward it, have raised doubts regarding the effectiveness of its deterrence concept. Now, it appears that Tehran is likely to undergo a strategic reassessment—all while the Iranian regime stands at a critical decision-making juncture

The war in the Gaza Strip has provided Iran with its first significant opportunity to challenge Israel on multiple fronts. Iran’s involvement in the multi-front campaign has reignited discussions about the roots of the conflict between Iran and Israel and the best strategy for addressing the Iranian threat. Ideological hostility toward Israel has been a fundamental element in the Iranian regime’s worldview since 1979. At the same time, the place of Israel in Iranian security doctrine has evolved over the years. Given the escalating friction between the two countries, Iran now perceives Israel as a threat to its national security. From Iran’s perspective, the ongoing Israeli campaign underscores the necessity of enhancing its response to the increasing pressure exerted by Israel. The Israeli–Iranian conflict, originating in Iran’s ideological antipathy toward the Jewish state, has transformed into a multi-front struggle between Israel and the pro-Iranian axis effectively wielded by Tehran to advance its strategic goals. While Israel was not the sole or even the primary influence in the development of Iran’s strategic doctrines, over the years, it has become a catalyst and motivating factor for their utilization against Israel.