In recent days, dramatic events have unfolded in Syria that typically span years rather than mere days. Rebel factions affiliated with the central operations room, “al-Fatah al-Mubin,” led by the jihadist group “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (formerly al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria), and other groups supported by Turkey, launched an offensive against regime forces in northwestern Syria.
For the first time in years, rebel groups succeeded in capturing territory from Assad’s army and allied militias, including taking control of Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo. The recapture of Aleppo by the Syrian regime in December 2016 had marked the beginning of its victory in the war. Yesterday, the rebels managed to seize areas in the city of Hama, but by this morning, the Syrian regime and its allies appeared to have prevented its full takeover.
The timing is no coincidence. The attack caught the Axis of Resistance at a critical weak point. Following prolonged fighting with Israel, particularly after the recent Operation “Northern Arrows,” a significant portion of Hezbollah forces and other Shiite militias in Syria relocated to Lebanon, while others were neutralized. Iran is preoccupied with addressing Hezbollah’s setbacks, limiting its ability to send fighters to assist the Syrian president. Moreover, Russia’s focus on Ukraine does not bode well for Assad’s position. Beyond the operational aspect, there is a psychological dimension—the rebels in Syria have broken through the fear barrier against the Axis of Resistance, and the perception of its invincible power has been shattered.
Turkey is likely behind the offensive. The rebels in Idlib have long received Turkish economic and military support. This alliance grants Ankara influence over Syrian territory and serves as a bargaining chip against the regime. For years, Turkey has sought reconciliation with Assad, partly to neutralize the Kurdish threat in the northeast and facilitate the return of millions of refugees currently in Turkey. From Turkey’s perspective, the current operation might pressure Assad to accept its terms for a settlement or, at the very least, curb the recent wave of Russian-regime attacks.
In summary, this is encouraging news for Assad’s opponents and the Axis of Resistance, which has suffered severe blows across various arenas, now also in Syria. However, the country’s internal instability could open the door for increased Iranian military presence. Additionally, it’s important to note that these are not the secular, pragmatic rebels who once formed the “Free Syrian Army” but rather extremist groups with a religious-jihadist ideology—perhaps more moderate than al-Qaeda but not necessarily friendly to Israel. The collapse of Assad’s regime could create a chaotic environment and fertile ground for the emergence of new military threats.
Depending on the developments, Israel may need to decide whether to intervene in Syria to enhance its gains against the Axis of Resistance or at least neutralize immediate threats to its security interests. For now, patience is advisable. The coming days will be critical in determining whether this is a limited campaign or a broader operation, potentially involving additional opposition groups that could, for the first time in nearly a decade, threaten the survival of the Assad regime.
In recent days, dramatic events have unfolded in Syria that typically span years rather than mere days. Rebel factions affiliated with the central operations room, “al-Fatah al-Mubin,” led by the jihadist group “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (formerly al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria), and other groups supported by Turkey, launched an offensive against regime forces in northwestern Syria.
For the first time in years, rebel groups succeeded in capturing territory from Assad’s army and allied militias, including taking control of Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo. The recapture of Aleppo by the Syrian regime in December 2016 had marked the beginning of its victory in the war. Yesterday, the rebels managed to seize areas in the city of Hama, but by this morning, the Syrian regime and its allies appeared to have prevented its full takeover.
The timing is no coincidence. The attack caught the Axis of Resistance at a critical weak point. Following prolonged fighting with Israel, particularly after the recent Operation “Northern Arrows,” a significant portion of Hezbollah forces and other Shiite militias in Syria relocated to Lebanon, while others were neutralized. Iran is preoccupied with addressing Hezbollah’s setbacks, limiting its ability to send fighters to assist the Syrian president. Moreover, Russia’s focus on Ukraine does not bode well for Assad’s position. Beyond the operational aspect, there is a psychological dimension—the rebels in Syria have broken through the fear barrier against the Axis of Resistance, and the perception of its invincible power has been shattered.
Turkey is likely behind the offensive. The rebels in Idlib have long received Turkish economic and military support. This alliance grants Ankara influence over Syrian territory and serves as a bargaining chip against the regime. For years, Turkey has sought reconciliation with Assad, partly to neutralize the Kurdish threat in the northeast and facilitate the return of millions of refugees currently in Turkey. From Turkey’s perspective, the current operation might pressure Assad to accept its terms for a settlement or, at the very least, curb the recent wave of Russian-regime attacks.
In summary, this is encouraging news for Assad’s opponents and the Axis of Resistance, which has suffered severe blows across various arenas, now also in Syria. However, the country’s internal instability could open the door for increased Iranian military presence. Additionally, it’s important to note that these are not the secular, pragmatic rebels who once formed the “Free Syrian Army” but rather extremist groups with a religious-jihadist ideology—perhaps more moderate than al-Qaeda but not necessarily friendly to Israel. The collapse of Assad’s regime could create a chaotic environment and fertile ground for the emergence of new military threats.
Depending on the developments, Israel may need to decide whether to intervene in Syria to enhance its gains against the Axis of Resistance or at least neutralize immediate threats to its security interests. For now, patience is advisable. The coming days will be critical in determining whether this is a limited campaign or a broader operation, potentially involving additional opposition groups that could, for the first time in nearly a decade, threaten the survival of the Assad regime.