The Israeli strike in Qatar has implications not only for the war in Gaza and Israel–Qatar relations, but also for US–Gulf relations. The Gulf States view the United States as a strategic partner—and even in the absence of formal defense agreements—as a guarantor of their security against external threats. A strike in the heart of a Gulf capital by Washington’s close ally—and possibly even with its knowledge—shakes this assumption, even if sympathy for the Qatari regime, and certainly for Hamas, is scarce in the Gulf.
From the Gulf perspective, the strike in Doha is another link in a chain of events in recent years that have eroded basic assumptions regarding the perception that the United States will guarantee their security: Iran’s attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, and the Houthi drone fire toward Abu Dhabi in 2022. In both cases, the absence of an adequate US response led Saudi Arabia and the UAE to realize that they could no longer rely on American protection as before, pushing them to shift course—from confrontation with Tehran to détente, and from exclusive reliance on Washington to strategic hedging that includes closer ties with China and Russia.
Washington has invested considerable efforts to reassert and strengthen its position in the Gulf against this trend, particularly under the current Trump administration. President Trump’s visit this past May reinforced the sense that relations were back on a positive track: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE pledged to invest large sums of money in the American economy—in the belief that this declaration of intent would re-anchor the American interest in safeguarding their security.
However, the strike in Doha revives these concerns in full force and undermines confidence, which was never complete, in the willingness of the United States to act to ensure the Gulf States’ security. While there is no alternative to the United States as a military ally—given its military power, its historical ties with the states, and its presence in the region—the incident may drive the Gulf States to continue hedging risks within the framework of the great-power competition. In the short term, however, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh may increase their demands for formal guarantees from the United States, in the form of defense agreements, as well as advanced weaponry to demonstrate American commitment to their security. Various reports suggest that both Qatar and the United States are seeking to deepen their security relations as a direct response to the Israeli strike.
The Israeli strike in Qatar has implications not only for the war in Gaza and Israel–Qatar relations, but also for US–Gulf relations. The Gulf States view the United States as a strategic partner—and even in the absence of formal defense agreements—as a guarantor of their security against external threats. A strike in the heart of a Gulf capital by Washington’s close ally—and possibly even with its knowledge—shakes this assumption, even if sympathy for the Qatari regime, and certainly for Hamas, is scarce in the Gulf.
From the Gulf perspective, the strike in Doha is another link in a chain of events in recent years that have eroded basic assumptions regarding the perception that the United States will guarantee their security: Iran’s attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, and the Houthi drone fire toward Abu Dhabi in 2022. In both cases, the absence of an adequate US response led Saudi Arabia and the UAE to realize that they could no longer rely on American protection as before, pushing them to shift course—from confrontation with Tehran to détente, and from exclusive reliance on Washington to strategic hedging that includes closer ties with China and Russia.
Washington has invested considerable efforts to reassert and strengthen its position in the Gulf against this trend, particularly under the current Trump administration. President Trump’s visit this past May reinforced the sense that relations were back on a positive track: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE pledged to invest large sums of money in the American economy—in the belief that this declaration of intent would re-anchor the American interest in safeguarding their security.
However, the strike in Doha revives these concerns in full force and undermines confidence, which was never complete, in the willingness of the United States to act to ensure the Gulf States’ security. While there is no alternative to the United States as a military ally—given its military power, its historical ties with the states, and its presence in the region—the incident may drive the Gulf States to continue hedging risks within the framework of the great-power competition. In the short term, however, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh may increase their demands for formal guarantees from the United States, in the form of defense agreements, as well as advanced weaponry to demonstrate American commitment to their security. Various reports suggest that both Qatar and the United States are seeking to deepen their security relations as a direct response to the Israeli strike.