Deepening the military achievement in Iran may pose a threat to the stability of the Iranian regime. In response to a real threat to its stability, it could resort to extreme—even if unusual—measures to deter or exact a price. While most of these measures are known, under extreme circumstances, Iran may resort to one or several of them.
At the top of the severity scale is a rapid breakout to military nuclear capability. This move could involve enriching uranium to 90% at an unknown site, cutting ties with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and announcing operational nuclear capability and/or conducting a first nuclear test. Another severe scenario includes the use of chemical, biological, or radiological materials (a kind of “dirty bomb”) or conducting a sophisticated biological attack using an engineered virus—all of which are relatively inexpensive means that are difficult to attribute directly to their senders.
Another possible scenario is an operation to disrupt freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Even partial disruption, by attacking tankers or laying sea mines, would affect not only oil prices but also stability in financial markets. This action constitutes a clear cause for war and is likely to provoke an American response, with a high probability of escalation into direct military conflict. For this reason, Iran might see this as a decisive leverage point when it has nothing left to lose. The damage from such a move can be mitigated by using “strait-bypassing” pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates and by opening strategic reserves, primarily in the United States.
In the severe tier is a scenario involving the targeting of embassies and Jewish and Israeli centers abroad. The purpose of such attacks would be twofold: deterrence and distraction, while maintaining “plausible deniability.” Another threat, as part of overall escalation, is a destructive cyberattack. Iran has been active in this area on a large scale for years and may choose to dramatically escalate: shutting down power systems as well as targeting hospitals and banks.
In the lower severity but higher probability tier, one may include actions against Israel in the West Bank or activating forces still loyal to Iran in Iraq and Yemen against Gulf states or American forces. Such actions would help Iran create a sense of instability that would force the international community to shift focus to other arenas. Iran could strike Gulf states using drones, ballistic missiles, or cyberattacks. These are not new scenarios, but their intensity could grow and become strategic if the attacks target infrastructure hubs such as oil and gas facilities, ports, or desalination plants. The Gulf states expect American defensive support given their relative vulnerability.
In conclusion, the more Iran feels the noose tightening around its neck, the more likely it is to take risks and adopt extreme measures, some of which have been described above. Extreme scenarios such as a breakout to a military nuclear program, the use of chemical/biological means, disruption of maritime navigation, and terrorism abroad are not detached from reality—they are part of the Iranian regime’s operational options and must be prepared for.
ByGSpeech
Deepening the military achievement in Iran may pose a threat to the stability of the Iranian regime. In response to a real threat to its stability, it could resort to extreme—even if unusual—measures to deter or exact a price. While most of these measures are known, under extreme circumstances, Iran may resort to one or several of them.
At the top of the severity scale is a rapid breakout to military nuclear capability. This move could involve enriching uranium to 90% at an unknown site, cutting ties with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and announcing operational nuclear capability and/or conducting a first nuclear test. Another severe scenario includes the use of chemical, biological, or radiological materials (a kind of “dirty bomb”) or conducting a sophisticated biological attack using an engineered virus—all of which are relatively inexpensive means that are difficult to attribute directly to their senders.
Another possible scenario is an operation to disrupt freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Even partial disruption, by attacking tankers or laying sea mines, would affect not only oil prices but also stability in financial markets. This action constitutes a clear cause for war and is likely to provoke an American response, with a high probability of escalation into direct military conflict. For this reason, Iran might see this as a decisive leverage point when it has nothing left to lose. The damage from such a move can be mitigated by using “strait-bypassing” pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates and by opening strategic reserves, primarily in the United States.
In the severe tier is a scenario involving the targeting of embassies and Jewish and Israeli centers abroad. The purpose of such attacks would be twofold: deterrence and distraction, while maintaining “plausible deniability.” Another threat, as part of overall escalation, is a destructive cyberattack. Iran has been active in this area on a large scale for years and may choose to dramatically escalate: shutting down power systems as well as targeting hospitals and banks.
In the lower severity but higher probability tier, one may include actions against Israel in the West Bank or activating forces still loyal to Iran in Iraq and Yemen against Gulf states or American forces. Such actions would help Iran create a sense of instability that would force the international community to shift focus to other arenas. Iran could strike Gulf states using drones, ballistic missiles, or cyberattacks. These are not new scenarios, but their intensity could grow and become strategic if the attacks target infrastructure hubs such as oil and gas facilities, ports, or desalination plants. The Gulf states expect American defensive support given their relative vulnerability.
In conclusion, the more Iran feels the noose tightening around its neck, the more likely it is to take risks and adopt extreme measures, some of which have been described above. Extreme scenarios such as a breakout to a military nuclear program, the use of chemical/biological means, disruption of maritime navigation, and terrorism abroad are not detached from reality—they are part of the Iranian regime’s operational options and must be prepared for.