As in every year, the month of Ramadan has arrived, bringing with it mass pilgrimages to the Temple Mount and al-Aqsa Mosque. Unlike in past years, when Ramadan was under intense scrutiny due to its security volatility, this year it has been overshadowed by the numerous security arenas and events that Israel is facing.
An analysis of the Palestinian discourse reveals that, similar to last year, unless an exceptionally unusual event occurs on the Temple Mount, the likelihood of a large-scale intifada or a chaotic event with mass participation remains extremely low for two main reasons:
- The ongoing and expanded IDF military operations in Judea and Samaria, including the dismantling of terrorist infrastructure and organizations in the refugee camps;
- Deep public concern over the replication of the Gaza model in the West Bank.
Thus, the combination of intensified military activity and existing deterrence remains an effective restraining force in preventing widespread outbreaks.
Alongside these restraining factors, it is important to note that two elements are encouraging increased terrorist activity:
- Zaher Jabarin, the successor of Saleh al-Arouri (who was assassinated in Lebanon in January 2024), is now the head of Hamas’s military wing in Judea and Samaria. A specialist in orchestrating suicide bombers, he has been preparing for nearly a year to renew terrorist activities around Ramadan.
- Unlike previous IDF operations in the West Bank, this time has seen a significant displacement of civilians from refugee camps (with documented footage). Videos depicting the uprooting of civilians serve as a significant catalyst for radicalization and terrorist recruitment for attacks within Israel.
In conclusion, I believe the restraining factors outweigh those that fueling mass unrest. Therefore, the likelihood of a large-scale intifada or mass uprising remains low. However, the probability and motivation for lone-wolf terrorist attacks and/or small terrorist cells carrying out stabbings, vehicular attacks, and bombings are on the rise.
As in every year, the month of Ramadan has arrived, bringing with it mass pilgrimages to the Temple Mount and al-Aqsa Mosque. Unlike in past years, when Ramadan was under intense scrutiny due to its security volatility, this year it has been overshadowed by the numerous security arenas and events that Israel is facing.
An analysis of the Palestinian discourse reveals that, similar to last year, unless an exceptionally unusual event occurs on the Temple Mount, the likelihood of a large-scale intifada or a chaotic event with mass participation remains extremely low for two main reasons:
Thus, the combination of intensified military activity and existing deterrence remains an effective restraining force in preventing widespread outbreaks.
Alongside these restraining factors, it is important to note that two elements are encouraging increased terrorist activity:
In conclusion, I believe the restraining factors outweigh those that fueling mass unrest. Therefore, the likelihood of a large-scale intifada or mass uprising remains low. However, the probability and motivation for lone-wolf terrorist attacks and/or small terrorist cells carrying out stabbings, vehicular attacks, and bombings are on the rise.