Following the release by Hamas of video footage with a picture of Hisham al-Sayed, I advise:
a. The problem of the captured and missing persons must be resolved as a whole – all four in one deal. Splitting the issue into separate cases will lead to blackmail.
b. Extortion during the election period is an obvious trick – even for Hamas. Strength and resolve must be maintained.
c. A cold security interest is called for, albeit far more difficult to implement than catering to the human emotional need. This is complex work!
d. Israel must continue to try to take advantage of the new ties forged in the Gulf, which might help in mediation.
I believe there are four main reasons that led Hamas at this time to the unusual act of giving a "sign of life," apparently without receiving anything in return:
a. Sinwar conveys his commitment to those in prison. His message to them is that despite the long security calm in Gaza, they have not been forgotten.
b. Israel is entering a turbulent period of an election campaign, and as in the past, now is an opportunity to revive the debate in Israel about Gaza. The creation of security tensions, which in previous election periods occurred through firepower and nightly confusion, now surfaces with an attempt to raise the issue of prisoners and missing persons, known to be a sensitive issue in Israel.
c. Hamas is demanding a heavy price for the release of the two civilians and the bodies of the soldiers in Gaza, and therefore negotiations are not progressing. Releasing the video footage now follows previous (less dramatic) attempts to break the stalemate through public pressure and appeals to emotion.
d. It is no coincidence that the picture of al-Sayed appears with a picture from the recent Qatar Economic Forum on the screen in the background. Remember: the latest wave of terrorist attacks began with the Negev Summit in Israel. The Palestinian fear is that their old cause will be forgotten in the new Middle East.
Following the release by Hamas of video footage with a picture of Hisham al-Sayed, I advise:
a. The problem of the captured and missing persons must be resolved as a whole – all four in one deal. Splitting the issue into separate cases will lead to blackmail.
b. Extortion during the election period is an obvious trick – even for Hamas. Strength and resolve must be maintained.
c. A cold security interest is called for, albeit far more difficult to implement than catering to the human emotional need. This is complex work!
d. Israel must continue to try to take advantage of the new ties forged in the Gulf, which might help in mediation.
I believe there are four main reasons that led Hamas at this time to the unusual act of giving a "sign of life," apparently without receiving anything in return:
a. Sinwar conveys his commitment to those in prison. His message to them is that despite the long security calm in Gaza, they have not been forgotten.
b. Israel is entering a turbulent period of an election campaign, and as in the past, now is an opportunity to revive the debate in Israel about Gaza. The creation of security tensions, which in previous election periods occurred through firepower and nightly confusion, now surfaces with an attempt to raise the issue of prisoners and missing persons, known to be a sensitive issue in Israel.
c. Hamas is demanding a heavy price for the release of the two civilians and the bodies of the soldiers in Gaza, and therefore negotiations are not progressing. Releasing the video footage now follows previous (less dramatic) attempts to break the stalemate through public pressure and appeals to emotion.
d. It is no coincidence that the picture of al-Sayed appears with a picture from the recent Qatar Economic Forum on the screen in the background. Remember: the latest wave of terrorist attacks began with the Negev Summit in Israel. The Palestinian fear is that their old cause will be forgotten in the new Middle East.