Publications

The fate of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty originally signed in 1987 between the United States and the Soviet Union now appears uncertain, since the United States has announced its intentions to withdraw from the agreement and Russia has stated it is prepared to respond accordingly. The significance of the withdrawal from the INF Treaty affects not only the immediate force sizes and structures but also the dynamics of nuclear deterrence in Europe and more broadly. Nowadays and in the future, the assessment of nuclear forces will be based on their agility, flexibility, and responsiveness to diverse circumstances of nuclear crisis management or of limited deterrence failure. As such, the significance of “cyber” grows accordingly: The “smartness” of deterrent forces, including their suitability for escalation control and for conflict termination, depends upon their information-dependent system integrity and resilience, especially if the template is complicated by the addition of missile defenses to the equation.