Carmit Valensi

What does Syria look like five months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad — both on the Syrian side and on the Israeli side of the border — and what are the risks and opportunities facing decision-makers in Jerusalem?

On December 8, following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Israel launched Operation Arrow of Bashan in Syria. During the operation, the IDF operated in the buffer zone and took control of the peak of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side. At the same time, at least 136 Israeli airstrikes were carried out across the country, 65% of them targeting the western regions, including Damascus, Daraa, and Latakia. According to the IDF spokesperson, these strikes resulted in the destruction of 70%–80% of the Assad regime’s military capabilities within just 48 hours. This map displays the Israeli strikes in Syria during Operation Arrow of Bashan. Additionally, it illustrates the areas of control within the country and the various actors operating there, including Kurdish, American, and Turkish forces. The map is continuously updated as accurately as possible, based on open-source intelligence assessments and media reports.  

The developments in Syria present Israel with both new challenges and potential opportunities. The uncertainty surrounding the policy of the new regime under Ahmed al-Sharaa and the evolving situation on the ground necessitate that Israel maintain a high level of military readiness to cope with emerging threats, the unclear intentions of key actors—including Turkey—and the potential re-establishment of the Iran–Hezbollah axis within Syria. At the same time, al-Sharaa’s restrained statements regarding Israel, the presence of moderate elements, and the weakness of the Iranian-led “axis of resistance,” as well as of Russia in Syria, could create opportunities for diplomatic engagement. Israel should prepare for both scenarios: a stabilized Syria led by a moderate and effective regime or a Syria that serves as a breeding ground for extremist actors that could threaten Israel’s security. To address both possibilities, Israel should adopt a policy that encourages positive developments. This approach should combine military determination with measured diplomatic and humanitarian efforts that would enable Israel to protect its borders, participate in efforts to stabilize the region, emphasize its assets, and significantly improve its standing in both the regional and international arenas.

The dramatic events unfolding in Syria create a window of opportunity for Israel to enhance its security situation by intensifying the damage to Iran and its Axis of Resistance and aiming to fragment the continuity of the axis and make any future recovery difficult. From Israel’s perspective, unlike in previous cases, the events in Syria are supported by a series of favorable developments that have emerged over the past year. These developments provide Israel with the opportunity to leverage its achievements against the Axis of Resistance. However, such a move requires a proactive approach to safeguard Israeli interests in the region—beyond simply weakening Iranian influence in Syria. This includes preventing extremist elements from acquiring strategic weapons, halting the transport of armaments, and blocking anti-Israel activity along the border by controlling positive elements there. While Israeli involvement in the Syrian crisis poses inherent risks, it is clear that the opportunities it presents outweigh these risks.

What are the implications of the Syrian rebels’ surprise attack against the Assad regime, who are the players involved, and what are the consequences for Israel?

The civil war in Syria, which has been ongoing for more than a decade, is considered the greatest humanitarian catastrophe of the twenty-first century. President Bashar al-Assad remains in power, but Syria is far from a functioning or stable country. Out of a population of about 22 million people, the war has taken the lives of more than half a million residents and left about 15 million in need of humanitarian aid. The war has also led to the worst refugee crisis since World War II. More than six million Syrian refugees who were forced to leave their homes moved to live in neighboring countries—mainly Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and European countries. About 90% of them do not receive basic living necessities in the host countries and are seen as an economic and political burden. So far about 750,000 refugees have returned to Syria since 2016, but despite the regime’s declared policy that they should be repatriated, the return of millions of refugees to Syria is far from the reality. The reasons for this are related to the refugees’ fear of the regime taking revenge on them or of forced conscription, and to the perception that there is no future for them given the dismal situation in Syria, which has been devastated by the war. With the end of the battles, refugee flight is being replaced by emigration, and many Syrians are interested in leaving the country for a better future. This article discusses the Syrian refugee issue from the perspective of a war that has continued for more than a decade and the implications of the refugees for the host countries, including for their geopolitical environment. The study examines the refugees’ degree of integration in the host countries and also discusses the question of their return to Syria and its potential rehabilitation.