Against the backdrop of the convening of the UN General Assembly, in which Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will participate for the first time, reports are mounting regarding the possibility of reaching a new security agreement between Israel and Syria. This follows at least three meetings held between Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani. The full details of the agreement have yet to be revealed, but at its core lies an Israeli commitment to withdraw IDF forces (apparently gradually) to the lines of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, except for two military outposts on the Syrian Hermon; postponement of the Golan Heights issue for the future; a Syrian commitment to prevent the use of Syrian territory for attacks against Israel, to combat the presence of Iran and its proxies in Syria, and to guarantee the participation of minorities in the country’s political life under a framework of a united Syria. Israel, for its part, will commit not to interfere in Syria’s internal affairs and to recognize the government of Ahmed al-Sharaa. There has not yet been a response to Syria’s demand to halt Israeli strikes in the country.
Regarding southern Syria, an arrangement is taking shape that includes dividing the area into three zones, differentiated by the types of forces and weapons permitted in each. In the buffer strip, no military presence or heavy weapons will be allowed, but police and internal security forces will be permitted.
In an interview on September 17, al-Sharaa stated that the talks are “progressing” and an agreement may soon be reached, but clarified that this is not yet a peace agreement or normalization, emphasizing that a security arrangement is a “necessity” and could pave the way for “further understandings.”
The Syrian interests in reaching an agreement are clear: Withdrawal of IDF forces, cessation—or at least reduction—of Israeli strikes, and Israeli recognition of the regime will contribute to strengthening al-Sharaa’s standing, increase internal legitimacy, and bolster Syria’s image as a sovereign state. In addition, the US compensation for the move may be reflected in the permanent removal of sanctions under the “Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act.”
The fragile situation in Syria and the uncertainty regarding the new regime and the country’s future require Israel to remain cautious and prepare for scenarios in which the Syrian regime may be unable—or unwilling—to uphold its commitments. At the same time, Israel must not miss the rare opportunity before it. A gradual agreement with Syria could allow Israel to translate its military achievements into long-term diplomatic arrangements that would secure a quiet and safe border, improve its regional and international strategic standing, weaken Iranian influence, and contribute to long-term regional stability.
Against the backdrop of the convening of the UN General Assembly, in which Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will participate for the first time, reports are mounting regarding the possibility of reaching a new security agreement between Israel and Syria. This follows at least three meetings held between Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani. The full details of the agreement have yet to be revealed, but at its core lies an Israeli commitment to withdraw IDF forces (apparently gradually) to the lines of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, except for two military outposts on the Syrian Hermon; postponement of the Golan Heights issue for the future; a Syrian commitment to prevent the use of Syrian territory for attacks against Israel, to combat the presence of Iran and its proxies in Syria, and to guarantee the participation of minorities in the country’s political life under a framework of a united Syria. Israel, for its part, will commit not to interfere in Syria’s internal affairs and to recognize the government of Ahmed al-Sharaa. There has not yet been a response to Syria’s demand to halt Israeli strikes in the country.
Regarding southern Syria, an arrangement is taking shape that includes dividing the area into three zones, differentiated by the types of forces and weapons permitted in each. In the buffer strip, no military presence or heavy weapons will be allowed, but police and internal security forces will be permitted.
In an interview on September 17, al-Sharaa stated that the talks are “progressing” and an agreement may soon be reached, but clarified that this is not yet a peace agreement or normalization, emphasizing that a security arrangement is a “necessity” and could pave the way for “further understandings.”
The Syrian interests in reaching an agreement are clear: Withdrawal of IDF forces, cessation—or at least reduction—of Israeli strikes, and Israeli recognition of the regime will contribute to strengthening al-Sharaa’s standing, increase internal legitimacy, and bolster Syria’s image as a sovereign state. In addition, the US compensation for the move may be reflected in the permanent removal of sanctions under the “Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act.”
The fragile situation in Syria and the uncertainty regarding the new regime and the country’s future require Israel to remain cautious and prepare for scenarios in which the Syrian regime may be unable—or unwilling—to uphold its commitments. At the same time, Israel must not miss the rare opportunity before it. A gradual agreement with Syria could allow Israel to translate its military achievements into long-term diplomatic arrangements that would secure a quiet and safe border, improve its regional and international strategic standing, weaken Iranian influence, and contribute to long-term regional stability.