On February 2, the US administration began an “unfolding” operation against the pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, after they carried out more than 160 attacks against US targets, and in particular, after three American soldiers were killed. In this framework, an attack was carried out against more than 85 targets, intended – according to the US – to disrupt the supply chains of ammunition to the militias. At the same time, the United States, together with the United Kingdom and other allies, continued with the campaign to attack the Houthis in Yemen, including with attacks on February 3 on dozens of targets throughout Yemen. In a special announcement issued by President Biden after the attacks in Syria and Iraq, it was emphasized that this is the start of the response, and it "will continue at times and places of our choosing.” Biden also added that “the United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world.”
The Biden administration has no interest in being drawn into a broad conflict with Iran, and the targets chosen for the attack indicate this. Iran, for its part, is not interested in a direct confrontation, so when the deadly results of the militias' attack became clear, the commander of the Quds Force rushed to Baghdad, and after his visit, the commander of one of the militias, Kataib Hezbollah, which probably carried out the attack, announced that his organization would stop attacking the Americans. The Iranians have also repeated, in their own way, that although they are helping, they are not directing the militias' activities, and began threatening Washington and declaring that an attack on their territory would be met with a direct response against American forces in the region.
Tehran seems to consider the fact that Washington blames it but refrains from attacking its territory and repeats and declares that it is not interested in expanding the war as an achievement. The Iranians assess that they have succeeded in deterring the US and that the Biden administration, which is not interested in escalation, will avoid a direct attack on Iran, and therefore their room for maneuver is relatively large. Therefore, it is doubtful whether the developments at this stage will lead Iran to increase its efforts to bring an end to the attacks by the militias in Iraq and Syria, as well as the attacks by the Houthis at sea.
A scenario of widespread deterioration becomes more and more possible when both sides declare that they have no intention of ceasing their actions and counteractions. It is likely that the nature and scope of the actions by the United States in the coming period will be affected by the nature of the attacks against American targets and the ability of the administration to continue to distinguish between its repeated statements that hold Iran directly responsible for the actions of its allies and the targets for attack that will be chosen. There is already much criticism within the United States as to the discrepancy between the administration's statements and its actions, which in the eyes of critics demonstrates that the administration is reluctant to exact a direct cost from Tehran and is not interested in dealing with the source of the problem.
On February 2, the US administration began an “unfolding” operation against the pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, after they carried out more than 160 attacks against US targets, and in particular, after three American soldiers were killed. In this framework, an attack was carried out against more than 85 targets, intended – according to the US – to disrupt the supply chains of ammunition to the militias. At the same time, the United States, together with the United Kingdom and other allies, continued with the campaign to attack the Houthis in Yemen, including with attacks on February 3 on dozens of targets throughout Yemen. In a special announcement issued by President Biden after the attacks in Syria and Iraq, it was emphasized that this is the start of the response, and it "will continue at times and places of our choosing.” Biden also added that “the United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world.”
The Biden administration has no interest in being drawn into a broad conflict with Iran, and the targets chosen for the attack indicate this. Iran, for its part, is not interested in a direct confrontation, so when the deadly results of the militias' attack became clear, the commander of the Quds Force rushed to Baghdad, and after his visit, the commander of one of the militias, Kataib Hezbollah, which probably carried out the attack, announced that his organization would stop attacking the Americans. The Iranians have also repeated, in their own way, that although they are helping, they are not directing the militias' activities, and began threatening Washington and declaring that an attack on their territory would be met with a direct response against American forces in the region.
Tehran seems to consider the fact that Washington blames it but refrains from attacking its territory and repeats and declares that it is not interested in expanding the war as an achievement. The Iranians assess that they have succeeded in deterring the US and that the Biden administration, which is not interested in escalation, will avoid a direct attack on Iran, and therefore their room for maneuver is relatively large. Therefore, it is doubtful whether the developments at this stage will lead Iran to increase its efforts to bring an end to the attacks by the militias in Iraq and Syria, as well as the attacks by the Houthis at sea.
A scenario of widespread deterioration becomes more and more possible when both sides declare that they have no intention of ceasing their actions and counteractions. It is likely that the nature and scope of the actions by the United States in the coming period will be affected by the nature of the attacks against American targets and the ability of the administration to continue to distinguish between its repeated statements that hold Iran directly responsible for the actions of its allies and the targets for attack that will be chosen. There is already much criticism within the United States as to the discrepancy between the administration's statements and its actions, which in the eyes of critics demonstrates that the administration is reluctant to exact a direct cost from Tehran and is not interested in dealing with the source of the problem.