Strategic Assessment

The civil war in Syria that erupted in early 2011 has ravaged the country and changed its face entirely. Out of 24 million residents prior to the war, about six million fled to Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, while another three million have been displaced within Syria itself. Most international efforts focus on finding immediate solutions for the hardships of the refugees, while very few studies tackle the problems involved in launching a planned and funded comprehensive reconstruction process. Without such a reconstruction process, any arrangement for Syria’s political future is liable to encounter obstacles and foment persistent instability inside Syria and in neighboring countries where millions of Syrians have sought refuge. At this stage, there are more questions than answers, and presumably the questions will persist for a long time. Israel has a direct interest in several questions pertaining to the reconstruction process, including: what kind of regime will rule in Damascus, who is involved in funding and reconstruction, and which regions and economic sectors will benefit most from the reconstruction process.