Moderator: Dr. Carmit Valensi
Mr. Ram Ben Barak | Ms. Anna Borshchevskaya | Mr. Philip Smyth | Prof. Eyal Zisser
Dr. Carmit Valensi led the panel on what can be expected in Syria in the coming year. When asked about the challenges that Assad faces in building the new country, Prof. Eyal Zisser stated that Asad will invest in the Alawites and in Syria’s security and military systems, and less toward economic rehabilitation. He will focus on strengthening his regime. He also mentioned that countries are slowly returning to Syria and to Asad and opening up diplomatic offices.
When asked about Russia, Ms. Anna Borshchevskaya stated that Russia saved Assad. The opposition that mandated his departure has been marginalized. The US announcement of a withdrawal from Syria leaves Russia as an unchallenged power broker, and that’s what they sought. In terms of Iran, there are a lot of tensions between Russian and Iran but they both share an overarching anti-American stance.
Mr. Ram Ben Barak acknowledged that Syria is totally different than it was, and now there are three addresses who are responsible in Iran: Iranians, Russians, and the Syrians. Israel needs to operate in a way to prevent Iran from getting nuclear capacity since they are now in Syria. As for the Russians, Israel need to make sure that the Russians get what they want and to do this quietly and wisely. Prof. Zisser added that the Iranians will not leave Syria as it’s important; however, Asad does not see himself as a subject of Iran and is preventing attempts of Iran to establish itself among the Alawites. Mr. Philip Smyth agreed that Iran will not be going anywhere as it is a long term, ideological issue. Iran is creating forces across the region, both ideological and military. The Syrian front is a dream come true for Tehran.
The speakers spoke about the US decision to leave Syria. Mr. Philip Smyth stated that the Pentagon knows the United States cannot just leave, and he believes that covert campaigns will continue. As for Israel, Ms. Anna Borshchevskaya stated that Russia wants to have good relations with Israel as part of its playbook of being an arbiter. Its priority is its own interests, and int the short term, Russia is trying to bring pressure on Israel, but for the long term, Russia seeks to project a status of a great power. According to Ram Ben Barak, Israel needs to help the United States to understand that they should remain in Syria because of the Kurdish issue and also to serve as a buffer to Russia.
According to Prof. Zisser, there will not be any real rehabilitation in Syria as Syria was already impoverished and lacking infrastructure. There are not any real partners for Syria’s rehabilitation. Mr. Philip Smyth claimed that the ones loyal to Syria may be rewarded. Ms. Anna Borshchevskaya argued that reconstruction does not happen in an authoritarian mindset. Syria under Asad will not be stable and it will be a “frozen” conflict. Russia can manage this conflict as they will be the ultimate arbiter in this situation. There is also no room for Israel in the rehabilitation of Syria. According to Mr. Ram Ben Barak, the war is not over and it destroyed an entire infrastructure. While Alawites may continue living regular lives, the rest continue with the war. Syria will not overcome this and it does not interest the Iranians nor Asad, who only cares about his regime.
According to Prof. Zisser, in the future, Syria will look the same as it does today, while Mr. Philip Smyth stated that post-war Syria will be drawn out for a long time with different areas of influence. Ms. Anna Borschchevskaya agreed that the conflict will continue, and Russia is there permanently, as its interests extend to the entire region, way beyond just Syria alone.
Mr. Ram Ben Barak concluded by saying that Syria will turn into another Lebanon and the next conflict will be in the north, with Syria and Lebanon together.