Iran: Nuclear and Military Programs

An up-to-date overview of the nuclear talks with Iran, in the context of the serious report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency

Amid ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States, we are approaching a critical juncture regarding the future of Iran’s nuclear program—caught between the possibility of a diplomatic resolution and the threat of military action (by Israel and/or the United States). This interactive map highlights Iran’s key military and nuclear facilities, along with the locations of direct attacks on Iranian territory attributed to Israel in April and October 2024. Whether the coming months bring renewed diplomatic efforts toward a nuclear agreement or a military escalation with Iran, this regularly updated map provides a valuable resource for understanding Iran’s strategic assets. These assets form a central pillar of Iran’s deterrence posture against its adversaries—chief among them, Israel—especially given the weakening of its regional proxy network—which the Islamic Republic has built over years—due to the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. The map is updated regularly and as accurately as possible, based on open-source intelligence assessments and media reports.

The fateful decision facing Iran’s leader: Agreement or nuclear?

The ongoing campaign in Gaza and its spread to other fronts, including the direct confrontation in April 2024 between Iran and Israel, could bring about significant changes in the security conception of the Islamic Republic. These changes could affect the features of its policy and its strategic perceptions, including how it manages its regional network of proxies and its nuclear doctrine. Although Iran’s conduct since the start of the war does not currently indicate any strategic U-turns by the Iranian leadership, it is clear that due to internal, regional and international developments—along with the lessons from the ongoing regional war—Tehran increasingly estimates that the strategic balance is tipping in its favor. This perception could lead to significant changes in its policy, specifically a greater willingness to take risks and adopt a more aggressive approach, including towards Israel. This trend obliges Israel to prepare for the new Iranian strategy and for more intense conflict with Iran and the Shiite axis it leads.