Strategic Assessment

The success of the Islamic State organization (IS) reflects an amalgam of strengths and weaknesses. Its forces are mobile, fast, and capable of surprise; they combine the capabilities of a small army with terror tactics and are not highly vulnerable. IS has also grown through the power of its success, obtaining more funds and arms, attracting more volunteers, and building a large stronghold in Iraq and Syria, where governments are not able to cope with the organization. Iraq and Syria depend, respectively, on aid from the United States and Iran, which have limited their operations against IS to airstrikes that not are sufficiently effective. A political approach to combat the group is likewise not forged easily. On the other hand, the Islamic State is a small organization with limited ability to take over more territory. In Iraq, Sunni support for IS is limited, its adversaries are beginning to organize against it, and the scales will likely tip toward the organization’s weaknesses. Most Muslims have reservations about its approach, and the potential to realize the vision of an Islamic caliphate is limited. However, the process of obstructing the group will take time, and the organization will not disappear quickly.