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Home Posts Will the World’s Largest Dam Increase Tensions Between Two Giant Powers?

Will the World’s Largest Dam Increase Tensions Between Two Giant Powers?
Meny Vaknin
2 January, 2025

Last week, the Chinese government approved the construction of a hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in the autonomous region of Tibet. Set to be completed in about a decade, the dam is expected to become the world’s largest hydroelectric project, capable of generating three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam, which China built on the Yangtze River.

Although the planned dam increases China’s use of green energy, it has sparked strong opposition among geologists and environmental activists. The dam is located in one of the most seismically active regions in the world, and frequent earthquakes in the area could trigger disasters such as landslides and floods. Additionally, the project faces resistance from the Tibetan minority and human rights organizations as its construction will require the relocation of some local population to other areas in Tibet.

However, the most significant implication might extend beyond China’s border. India, China’s neighbor, is particularly concerned about the dam’s construction, as the river flows from China into India in the state of Arunachal Pradesh (where the river is called the Brahmaputra). The dam could cause flooding, especially during the monsoon season, and conversely, reduce water flow during dry periods. Yet a greater concern is geopolitical. The dam would grant China control over the water supply to India, raising fears that Beijing could “shut off the tap” if relations deteriorate or to exert pressure on India to compromise on disputed border territories.

The timing of the announcement about the dam’s construction is noteworthy, coinciding with a rapprochement between India and China. About two weeks ago, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing with India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to discuss solutions to their border disputes in the Himalayan region. As a result, while the dam’s construction may lead to some tensions between China and India, it’s unlikely to cause a major upheaval in their relations in the near future. For now, both countries seem focused on improving their ties, driven by extensive economic and strategic cooperation. However, this issue should be reassessed in a few years when the dam’s environmental impact becomes more apparent.

Topics: Israel-China Policy Center - The Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation
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