Hamas has officially claimed responsibility for the deadly rocket and mortar attack on the assembly area near the Kerem Shalom crossing, launched from a nearby humanitarian area in the Rafah area, and resulting in four soldiers dead and nine others wounded,
It can be assumed that the Hamas leadership was fully aware of the implications of the attack and the expected Israeli response. It’s even more likely that this was their intention. Hamas’s leadership is working to push Israel into a reality that would allow a hostage deal under more favorable conditions to Hamas, guaranteeing the end of the war and enabling Hamas to remain the sovereign entity in the Gaza Strip with residual military and governmental capabilities. Hamas estimates that it will be able to restore these capabilities under the auspices of a lasting calm following the end of the war.
The Hamas leadership is in a win-win strategic comfort zone, where they stand to benefit whether a more convenient deal for Hamas is imposed on Israel due to American and Egyptian pressures alongside domestic pressures, fueled by a well-oiled and effective cognitive campaign by Hamas and its allies (Iran and Russia), or whether Israel is dragged into a military operation in Rafah, which will worsen its position within the international community.
Hamas’s leadership perceives the strategic comfort zone as allowing flexibility in the means and the risks it takes. Its leadership doesn’t hesitate to use the Palestinian civilian population as a human shield, and worse than that, Hamas doesn’t hesitate to sacrifice its citizens for the sake of its strategic interests, particularly its survival as the sovereign entity in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, Hamas’s leadership feels comfortable imposing on Israel and engaging in repeated manipulations, while also dragging Israel into provocations, such as the rocket and mortar attack on Kerem Shalom, to elicit military responses. From Hamas’s perspective, these responses should result in as many civilian casualties as possible, which would further turn the international community against Israel and harm its international and regional standing. Such a response would also distance Israel from normalization with Saudi Arabia and from greater integration in the region and tear Israeli society apart.
Hamas has officially claimed responsibility for the deadly rocket and mortar attack on the assembly area near the Kerem Shalom crossing, launched from a nearby humanitarian area in the Rafah area, and resulting in four soldiers dead and nine others wounded,
It can be assumed that the Hamas leadership was fully aware of the implications of the attack and the expected Israeli response. It’s even more likely that this was their intention. Hamas’s leadership is working to push Israel into a reality that would allow a hostage deal under more favorable conditions to Hamas, guaranteeing the end of the war and enabling Hamas to remain the sovereign entity in the Gaza Strip with residual military and governmental capabilities. Hamas estimates that it will be able to restore these capabilities under the auspices of a lasting calm following the end of the war.
The Hamas leadership is in a win-win strategic comfort zone, where they stand to benefit whether a more convenient deal for Hamas is imposed on Israel due to American and Egyptian pressures alongside domestic pressures, fueled by a well-oiled and effective cognitive campaign by Hamas and its allies (Iran and Russia), or whether Israel is dragged into a military operation in Rafah, which will worsen its position within the international community.
Hamas’s leadership perceives the strategic comfort zone as allowing flexibility in the means and the risks it takes. Its leadership doesn’t hesitate to use the Palestinian civilian population as a human shield, and worse than that, Hamas doesn’t hesitate to sacrifice its citizens for the sake of its strategic interests, particularly its survival as the sovereign entity in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, Hamas’s leadership feels comfortable imposing on Israel and engaging in repeated manipulations, while also dragging Israel into provocations, such as the rocket and mortar attack on Kerem Shalom, to elicit military responses. From Hamas’s perspective, these responses should result in as many civilian casualties as possible, which would further turn the international community against Israel and harm its international and regional standing. Such a response would also distance Israel from normalization with Saudi Arabia and from greater integration in the region and tear Israeli society apart.