The Romanian presidential elections of 18 May saw a clear victor in pro-European centrist Nicușor Dan, as the liberal mayor of Bucharest secured 54% of the vote. European leaders welcomed the result, especially given earlier concerns over a possible George Simion victory. The incidentally pro-Israel AUR chairman had campaigned on a far-right, anti-system/anti-corruption platform with elements reminiscent of MAGA rhetoric, which made him extremely popular among the Romanian diaspora.
Dan’s victory is all the more remarkable considering the political forces arrayed against him—chief among them, Russian intelligence agencies. Moscow initially backed Călin Georgescu, whose profile was even more revisionist and anti-establishment. Georgescu’s unexpected lead in the first round was fueled by an artificial TikTok-driven surge. The Constitutional Court acted swiftly, annulling the result and banning Georgescu from running—a move that risked triggering a deep crisis of political legitimacy. However, Romanian intelligence services had meticulously built a case against him, presenting substantial evidence of incitement against the constitutional order, voter corruption, money laundering, and other criminal charges. Subsequently, Russian support quickly pivoted to Simion, who experienced a similarly rapid rise on TikTok.
Meanwhile, Europe became increasingly concerned about interference coming unprecedentedly also from Washington. The Trump administration took an unusually strong interest in Romania's elections—just as it had in Germany last February. J.D. Vance and Elon Musk criticized the earlier cancellation of the elections and publicly supported the ideologically aligned Simion. The Trump administration even sent election observers to Bucharest and suspended Romania from its visa waiver program.
Dan’s unexpected victory carries several broader strategic implications. First, Romania has not joined the pro-Russian axis of Hungary and Slovakia, which would have been critical given its geostrategic—essential for Western military support to Ukraine and for broader Black Sea security. A Simion victory would likely have obstructed the Western military aid effort, given his Kremlin-aligned stance on the war and revisionist claims to Ukrainian territory.
Second, Simion's defeat may reflect a global trend away from populism since the onset of the Trump administration and the imposition of global tariffs. Recent examples include the defeats of Trump-aligned candidates like Pierre Poilievre in Canada and Peter Dutton in Australia, who ultimately lost due to their perceived ideological alignment.
Lastly, Europe appears to be improving its capacity to counter foreign interference. Dan’s win follows successful institutional resistance in the Moldovan and Polish presidential elections. Across the continent, democratic institutions seem increasingly confident in identifying and confronting malign influence—and are succeeding in doing so.
The Romanian presidential elections of 18 May saw a clear victor in pro-European centrist Nicușor Dan, as the liberal mayor of Bucharest secured 54% of the vote. European leaders welcomed the result, especially given earlier concerns over a possible George Simion victory. The incidentally pro-Israel AUR chairman had campaigned on a far-right, anti-system/anti-corruption platform with elements reminiscent of MAGA rhetoric, which made him extremely popular among the Romanian diaspora.
Dan’s victory is all the more remarkable considering the political forces arrayed against him—chief among them, Russian intelligence agencies. Moscow initially backed Călin Georgescu, whose profile was even more revisionist and anti-establishment. Georgescu’s unexpected lead in the first round was fueled by an artificial TikTok-driven surge. The Constitutional Court acted swiftly, annulling the result and banning Georgescu from running—a move that risked triggering a deep crisis of political legitimacy. However, Romanian intelligence services had meticulously built a case against him, presenting substantial evidence of incitement against the constitutional order, voter corruption, money laundering, and other criminal charges. Subsequently, Russian support quickly pivoted to Simion, who experienced a similarly rapid rise on TikTok.
Meanwhile, Europe became increasingly concerned about interference coming unprecedentedly also from Washington. The Trump administration took an unusually strong interest in Romania's elections—just as it had in Germany last February. J.D. Vance and Elon Musk criticized the earlier cancellation of the elections and publicly supported the ideologically aligned Simion. The Trump administration even sent election observers to Bucharest and suspended Romania from its visa waiver program.
Dan’s unexpected victory carries several broader strategic implications. First, Romania has not joined the pro-Russian axis of Hungary and Slovakia, which would have been critical given its geostrategic—essential for Western military support to Ukraine and for broader Black Sea security. A Simion victory would likely have obstructed the Western military aid effort, given his Kremlin-aligned stance on the war and revisionist claims to Ukrainian territory.
Second, Simion's defeat may reflect a global trend away from populism since the onset of the Trump administration and the imposition of global tariffs. Recent examples include the defeats of Trump-aligned candidates like Pierre Poilievre in Canada and Peter Dutton in Australia, who ultimately lost due to their perceived ideological alignment.
Lastly, Europe appears to be improving its capacity to counter foreign interference. Dan’s win follows successful institutional resistance in the Moldovan and Polish presidential elections. Across the continent, democratic institutions seem increasingly confident in identifying and confronting malign influence—and are succeeding in doing so.