- Yesterday's difficult event in Majdal Shams cannot be separated from the events of the last few weeks. Hezbollah has raised the bar for Israel’s activity in Lebanon in an attempt to deter further harm to its forces and Lebanese citizens. The organization expanded the range of fire and the number of launches, including to the Golan Heights—an area that has become “attractive” for Hezbollah’s firing since October 8.
- In this context, Hezbollah responded with intense shooting aimed at IDF bases in the Golan Heights, after Israel hit Radwan Force operatives in Lebanon. One rocket landed in Majdal Shams at a populated football field and caused serious harm to civilians.
- Hezbollah’s response to the shooting—an official denial—indicates that the organization still fears an all-out war and hopes that this event will not lead to escalation, particularly given the Druze civilians who were killed. Additionally, Hezbollah likely fears the impact of this incident on its relationship with the Druze in Lebanon.
- At the end of the day, the writing was on the wall. Hezbollah and Israel are playing with fire, and escalation is only a matter of time. A great deal depends on the response of Israel and especially Hezbollah. They are the ones who will determine whether today’s event will drag into a full-scale campaign.
- The main problem is the inability to contain the unfolding event. Hezbollah is an organization that operates on a principle of “equations,” and every Israeli escalation leads it to “balance” the equations (and the organization’s denial of the current event does not necessarily help). Therefore, Israel’s harsh reaction to the current incident could provoke a counter-reaction, leading to the breaking of the “rules of engagement” existing between the parties since October 8.
Bottom line, we are the closest to seriously escalating the conflict with Hezbollah since October 8, and the coming days will be critical to whether the situation will escalate. The current event cannot be left without a severe reaction, but it should be taken into account that a severe reaction could lead to a spiraling escalation that could end up becoming a widespread campaign.
Bottom line, we are the closest to seriously escalating the conflict with Hezbollah since October 8, and the coming days will be critical to whether the situation will escalate. The current event cannot be left without a severe reaction, but it should be taken into account that a severe reaction could lead to a spiraling escalation that could end up becoming a widespread campaign.