INSS Managing Director Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman clarifies the facts about the nuclear deal that may be signed soon:
The claim: The agreement would pour money into terrorism
The fact: Correct, but even at the height of the Trump administration's sanctions, the budget of the Revolutionary Guards increased by dozens of percent; Hezbollah's budget was not affected; and support for the terrorist organizations in Gaza continued. Also, the peak period of the Trump sanctions was a peak period in Iranian defense production and exports.
The claim: The agreement allows the production of advanced centrifuges starting in 2025
The fact: Correct, but only for 200 advanced centrifuges per year. In the last two years, Iran has produced 500 advanced centrifuges per year and no element has limited it.
The claim: The agreement gives Iran international immunity
The fact: Partially true. Israel is not a party to the agreement and does not request authorization for covert operations from the US. Indeed, if Iran complies with the limitations of the agreement (without a nuclear project), the offensive activity against it will likely be concentrated on the export of Iranian terrorism, and all these ostensible limitations are in effect only for the duration of the agreement.
The claim: Following the agreement, Israel will spend a fortune of money to prepare for an attack when it expires
The fact: Israel is indeed speeding up preparations for the possibility that Iran will go nuclear when the agreement expires in 2030, or alternatively, if a future US president decides to withdraw unilaterally from the agreement again. However, Israel would accelerate its plans even more if there were no agreement. The large sums of money that may be spread over a longer period if an agreement is signed will become an immediate expense if it is not signed. Thus from this angle and from an economic perspective, the agreement will actually be beneficial in terms of economic well-being for Israel at a time when the cost of living worries many Israelis more than anything else.
INSS Managing Director Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman clarifies the facts about the nuclear deal that may be signed soon:
The claim: The agreement would pour money into terrorism
The fact: Correct, but even at the height of the Trump administration's sanctions, the budget of the Revolutionary Guards increased by dozens of percent; Hezbollah's budget was not affected; and support for the terrorist organizations in Gaza continued. Also, the peak period of the Trump sanctions was a peak period in Iranian defense production and exports.
The claim: The agreement allows the production of advanced centrifuges starting in 2025
The fact: Correct, but only for 200 advanced centrifuges per year. In the last two years, Iran has produced 500 advanced centrifuges per year and no element has limited it.
The claim: The agreement gives Iran international immunity
The fact: Partially true. Israel is not a party to the agreement and does not request authorization for covert operations from the US. Indeed, if Iran complies with the limitations of the agreement (without a nuclear project), the offensive activity against it will likely be concentrated on the export of Iranian terrorism, and all these ostensible limitations are in effect only for the duration of the agreement.
The claim: Following the agreement, Israel will spend a fortune of money to prepare for an attack when it expires
The fact: Israel is indeed speeding up preparations for the possibility that Iran will go nuclear when the agreement expires in 2030, or alternatively, if a future US president decides to withdraw unilaterally from the agreement again. However, Israel would accelerate its plans even more if there were no agreement. The large sums of money that may be spread over a longer period if an agreement is signed will become an immediate expense if it is not signed. Thus from this angle and from an economic perspective, the agreement will actually be beneficial in terms of economic well-being for Israel at a time when the cost of living worries many Israelis more than anything else.