The agreements to normalize relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were signed two years ago, and were joined by Morocco and Sudan, although the agreement with Sudan has yet to be realized.
So far, hundreds of memoranda of understanding (though most have not yet been implemented) and agreements in various fields have been signed, embassies have been opened, high-profile visits have occurred, and air traffic routes have been launched. Over 150 meetings by security officials were held with their counterparts in the region, and deals totaling over $3 billion of Israeli security means to countries of the region were signed.
Despite these achievements, different circumstances and deep processes could cool the relatively warm peace. Certain factors influence the possibility of developing the relations and establish a glass ceiling of sorts, albeit dynamic in nature – as we have seen, based on different considerations, Arab states will go a long way, even contrary to their previous public positions.
First, the Palestinian issue continues to bear much weight among the Arab public. The worsening of the security situation between Israel and Hamas and certainly in the West Bank, in the wake of the challenge to the Palestinian Authority's governance, could harm relations and the ability to express them only.
Second, Iran opposes the agreements and is especially concerned by the security cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states. It will do everything to drive a wedge between Israel and its partners, threaten them, and even take actions below the threshold of war in order to force them to align with it and cool their relations with Israel.
Third, American political proactivity is necessary not only to promote relations but sometimes to accompany the parties in certain areas, certainly in multilateral security issues. The Biden administration supports the process, mainly rhetorically, and it is not clear to what extent it is willing to invest what it takes to promote it.
In addition, the internal processes in Israel, i.e., the political instability, have a negative effect on the ability to promote processes and even implement issues that have been agreed upon. Either way, the situation sends a negative message and damages the image of Israeli strength.
The agreements to normalize relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were signed two years ago, and were joined by Morocco and Sudan, although the agreement with Sudan has yet to be realized.
So far, hundreds of memoranda of understanding (though most have not yet been implemented) and agreements in various fields have been signed, embassies have been opened, high-profile visits have occurred, and air traffic routes have been launched. Over 150 meetings by security officials were held with their counterparts in the region, and deals totaling over $3 billion of Israeli security means to countries of the region were signed.
Despite these achievements, different circumstances and deep processes could cool the relatively warm peace. Certain factors influence the possibility of developing the relations and establish a glass ceiling of sorts, albeit dynamic in nature – as we have seen, based on different considerations, Arab states will go a long way, even contrary to their previous public positions.
First, the Palestinian issue continues to bear much weight among the Arab public. The worsening of the security situation between Israel and Hamas and certainly in the West Bank, in the wake of the challenge to the Palestinian Authority's governance, could harm relations and the ability to express them only.
Second, Iran opposes the agreements and is especially concerned by the security cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states. It will do everything to drive a wedge between Israel and its partners, threaten them, and even take actions below the threshold of war in order to force them to align with it and cool their relations with Israel.
Third, American political proactivity is necessary not only to promote relations but sometimes to accompany the parties in certain areas, certainly in multilateral security issues. The Biden administration supports the process, mainly rhetorically, and it is not clear to what extent it is willing to invest what it takes to promote it.
In addition, the internal processes in Israel, i.e., the political instability, have a negative effect on the ability to promote processes and even implement issues that have been agreed upon. Either way, the situation sends a negative message and damages the image of Israeli strength.