Publications
Survey, January 6, 2025
Table of Contents:
Since the outbreak of the Swords of Iron War, the Institute for National Security Studies regularly conducts public opinion surveys[1] to examine trends in national resilience and public trust.
Click here to download the complete survey data | Click here to view the trends among the Jewish public | Click here to view the trends among the Arab public
Trust in Individuals and Institutions
Key Findings:
- For the first time in a long while, trust in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and its senior command has slightly declined. The percentage of Israelis expressing high trust in the IDF has dropped by 5.5 percentage points, from 74.5% in December to 69% in January. This decline is primarily driven by a decrease of 8 percentage points among Jewish respondents, now at 77%, while trust among Arab respondents remains low but stable at 35%.
- Trust in the chief of staff has also continued to decline for the third consecutive month, falling from 50% in November to 42% in January. Similarly, people’s trust in the reports given by the IDF spokesperson has declined from 64% in November to 59% in January. Despite this decline, the IDF and senior military leadership still enjoy the highest levels of trust among the institutions and individuals surveyed.
- Trust in the Israeli government, prime minister, and defense minister remains consistently low. Only 20% (23% among Jews and 9% among Arabs) report high trust in the government. Likewise, trust in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands at just 27% (33% among Jews and 7% among Arabs), while trust in Defense Minister Israel Katz is at 23% (26% among Jews and 9% among Arabs).
- Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara enjoys a higher level of trust than political leaders, with 39% of Israelis (39% among Jews and 42% among Arabs) expressing high trust in her.
- Regarding the public dispute between the defense minister and the chief of staff, 42% of Israelis (45% among Jews and 29% among Arabs) believe the chief of staff has a mandate to make appointments at this time, although opinions vary on the scope of his authority. Some 11% think he should have full discretion over appointments, while 31% (34% among Jews and 18% among Arabs) believe he should make only essential appointments. Meanwhile, 36% of Israelis (39% among Jews and 25% among Arabs) support the defense minister’s position that no appointments should be made until investigations into the events of October 7 and the lessons learned are completed.
- Additionally, 51.5% of Israelis (50% among Jews and 56% among Arabs) express low or very low confidence in the IDF’s investigation into the events of October 7.
The Southern Front
Key Findings:
- Confidence in the IDF’s victory in Gaza has significantly declined compared to last month. In January, 55% of Israelis (61% among Jews and 31% among Arabs) believe the IDF will win the war in Gaza, down from 65% in December (74% among Jews and 29% among Arabs).
- The public’s confidence in achieving the war’s objectives has also dropped. In January, 41% of Israelis (47% among Jews and 19% among Arabs) believe the war’s objectives will be fully or largely achieved, compared to 52% (60% among Jews and 22% among Arabs) in December.
- Satisfaction with military achievements in Gaza remains stable since October, when the question was last asked. Currently, 44.5% (51% among Jews and 18% among Arabs) express high or very high satisfaction, while only 17% (13% among Jews and 31% among Arabs) report low or very low satisfaction.
- A large majority of Israelis—67%—(64% among Jews and 82% among Arabs) support the current agreement to return the hostages, while only 15% (18% among Jews and 3% among Arabs) oppose the deal. The agreement receives broad backing across the political spectrum, with 53% of right-wing respondents supporting it (25% oppose), 79% of centrist respondents supporting it (7% oppose), and 88% of left-wing respondents supporting it (7% oppose).
- Amid the ceasefire with Hamas, 49% of Israelis (41% among Jews and 80.5% among Arabs) believe it is time to end the war in Gaza, while 37% (46% among Jews and 3.5% among Arabs) believe the war should continue. However, 52% (59% among Jews and 28% among Arabs) believe the IDF will be able to resume fighting Hamas after the ceasefire if necessary, while 37% (34% among Jews and 44% among Arabs) think otherwise.
The Northern Front
Key Findings:
- As the 60-day ceasefire with Lebanon nears its end, 57% of Israelis (58.5% among Jews and 52% among Arabs) report high or very high satisfaction with its enforcement, while 26% (27.5% among Jews and 19.5% among Arabs) are dissatisfied.
- About half of the public, or 52% (50% among Jews and 62% among Arabs), is aware that the ceasefire agreement requires the IDF to withdraw and allow the Lebanese army to take control. In contrast, 20% (23% among Jews and 6% among Arabs) mistakenly believe that fighting should resume after 60 days.
- Opinions are divided on whether displaced residents should return to their homes in northern Israel. While 42% (40% among Jews and 50% among Arabs) believe the security situation allows for their return, 40.5% (45% among Jews and 23% among Arabs) disagree.
- Regarding Syria’s new government, 51% of Israelis (52% among Jews and 43.5% among Arabs) support establishing direct relations, while 18% (20% among Jews and 11.5% among Arabs) support it to a lesser extent. Only 8% (8% among Jews and 7% among Arabs) oppose any efforts to establish relations.
Israel–Turkey Relations
Key Findings:
- A majority of Israelis, at 55% (63% among Jews and 21.5% among Arabs), view Turkey’s growing role in Syria as a threat to Israel.
- As for diplomatic relations, 41% (36% among Jews and 61% among Arabs) believe Israel should work to improve ties with Turkey, while 44% (51% among Jews and 15% among Arabs) think Israel should take little or no action.
Conscription Law
Key Findings:
- Defense Minister Israel Katz’s conscription plan has limited public support. The plan, which aims for 50% ultra-Orthodox enlistment within seven years and includes personal sanctions, is backed by only 28% of Israelis (30.5% among Jews and 20.5% among Arabs).
- Among opponents, 37% (41.5% among Jews and 21.5% among Arabs) believe the plan legitimizes draft evasion, while 11% (11% among Jews and 8% among Arabs) oppose it because they think the enlistment target is too high.
Foreign Influence on Social Media
Key Findings:
- A majority of Israelis, at 61.5% (69% among Jews and 33% among Arabs), are concerned about foreign attempts to undermine social cohesion in Israel through social media, particularly actions that are attributed to Iran and Russia. However, 29% (26% among Jews and 41% among Arabs) are not concerned.
Resilience of Israeli Society
Key Findings:
- While 28% of Israelis believe that solidarity within Israeli society has somewhat or significantly strengthened, 37% feel it has decreased, and 24% see no change.
- A majority of Israelis (63.5%) express concern about Israel’s societal cohesion after the war, while only 10% report little or no concern. Nonetheless, 60% are optimistic about Israeli society’s ability to recover, compared to 32% who are pessimistic.
Israel–US Relations
Key Findings:
A majority of Israelis, at 66.5% (70% among Jews and 52% among Arabs), believe that newly elected US President Donald Trump will prioritize Israel’s security interests to a great or very great extent, while 19.5% (19% among Jews and 23% among Arabs) believe the opposite.
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[1] The latest Swords of Iron survey was conducted between January 16-20, 2025 by the Data Analytics Center at the Institute for National Security Studies. The fieldwork was carried out by the "iPanel" Institute, which conducted online interviews with 805 men and women online in Hebrew and 205 in Arabic, constituting a representative sample of the adult Israeli population in Israel aged 18 and over. The margin error for the entire sample is ±3.5% at a 95% confidence level.
The opinions expressed in INSS publications are the authors’ alone.
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