Publications
in Strategic Survey for Israel 2015-2016, eds. Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies, 2016
The three most noteworthy regional developments in 2015 were the formulation of the nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA) between Iran and the P5+1, the Saudi military intervention in the Yemeni civil war, and the Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war. Whatever its implications for Iran’s nuclear program and nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, the nuclear deal also heightened concerns about Iran’s capacity to pursue a hegemonial agenda in the region. Like the Saudi intervention in Yemen, the Iranian nuclear deal must therefore also be viewed through the prism of an intensifying competition between regional powers – based on identity no less than on geopolitical interests – for preeminence in what seems like a region made increasingly chaotic by the weakening of central authority in various states and, as a result, the multiplication of local actors in regional alignments and balances. The third development, Russia’s direct involvement in the combat in Syria, served as a dramatic reminder that the
The opinions expressed in INSS publications are the authors’ alone.