Iran vs. the United States: The Only Way Forward is Through Diplomacy and Negotiations

Moderator: Ms. Sima Shine

Dr. Michael Doran, Ms. Holly Dagres, Amb. Eric Danon and Maj. Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland

In the panel on Iran vs. the United States, moderated by Ms. Sima Shine, Ms. Holly Dagres stated that the messaging from the Trump administration has been confusing. Iran is in part lashing out because they view that the US goal is regime change, while US leaders and officials have openly expressed this, and from the Iranian perspective, they cannot negotiate bilaterally with the Trump administration. According to Dagres, neither side wants to go to war, but there is a 50:50 chance of going to war. The only way forward is through diplomacy with Europe’s assistance. Furthermore, any kind of negotiations would be multilateral as following the assassination of Soleimani, the Iranians will not negotiate bilaterally with the US administration. However, any multilateral initiative will likely yield a similar agreement to the JCPOA. Dr. Michael Doran noted that the Iranians are under enormous economic pressure due to the US maximum pressure policy, in addition to protests in Iraq and Lebanon targeting Iran. According to Doran, any real negotiations aimed at achieving results with Iran can only happen after the US presidential elections, and the Iranians will set up the negotiations in such a way to get the maximum out of the United States. Maj. Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland stated that the situation today is not good. If the point of embarking on sanctions was to move Iran away from a nuclear weapon, it appears that the opposite is happening, and US policy vis-à-vis Iran has been unsuccessful. He added that Trump has missed some more effective measures that could be applied toward Iran. Lebanon, which is under full control by Iran through Hezbollah, is on the verge of economic collapse and is requesting long-term loans from Europe and international monetary organizations. They could insist that Lebanon neither import nor manufacture weapons in exchange for economic rehabilitation. This would pressure Hezbollah and, in turn, weaken Iran’s power.