Moderator: Ms. Sima Shine
Mr. David Albright | Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead | Mr. Etienne de Gonneville | Mr. Norman Roule | Prof. Igor Yurgens
Etienne de Gonneville:
The Middle East is a complicated arena for Europe. It is much more than just the Arab-Israeli conflict or Iran. Europe is eager to finish the fight against the Islamic State and Islamic terrorism; it wants to stop chemical weapons proliferation and prevent nuclear proliferation; it wants to strengthen regional stability; and it wants to work with international elements in order to strengthen stability.
Regarding Iran: Europe believes it is important to deal with the existing regime – it is not looking for regime change. It is highly concerned by the possibility that Iran might achieve nuclear weapons (which has strong implications for the whole nonproliferation regime) and so it wants to put limits on Iran but be sure that in response, Iran does not resume and expand nuclear activities. Europe believes that Iran will continue to respect the terms of the JCPOA; and does not want to run the risk of new Iranian nuclear activity incurred by greater pressure on Iran.
This strategy has 4 pillars: the JCPOA; a long term framework to address the Iranian nuclear challenge after the JCPOA; curbs on Iran’s missile program; response to Iran’s regional destabilization and subversion. There is much effort to ensure that Iran remains in the JCPOA. There must be clearly defined goals, and there must be effective dialogue.
Iran’s possible departure from the JCPOA would be a major failure. The JCPOA gives the international community many options to work together now. If Iran leaves the deal, this step will be met with much opposition by the international community. Therefore it is important to correct an imperfect JCPOA, not abandon it. Iran is one of the few stable countries in the Middle East. War would be a highly detrimental development.
Amos Gilead:
The real issues on Iran must be identified. After the JCPOA, Iran will achieve a nuclear bomb. All options must be kept on the table. There must be serious pressure by the United States against Iran. The world seems to be ignoring the doomsday scenario with this regime, but instead, it must be prepared for a nuclear Iran. Like North Korea, Iran will not change its plans – it might be convinced to delay them. Iran will likely leave the JCPOA, although not until after the US elections in 2020. Therefore, alliances need to be cemented against Iran, including work with Arab countries and work with Europe. There must be intelligence, cooperation, and the formulation of common goals. It is important to cause the collapse of the regime – and to this end, retain all the options on the table.
David Albright:
The importance of the atomic archives in Iran uncovered by Israel has not been recognized sufficiently, and will likely assume more importance in 2019. The archives reveal much information about Iran’s nuclear plans, and indicate that Iran’s plans were much more developed than was previously thought. The archives underscore that there is no evidence that Iran’s program ever ended. Key Iranian personnel remain highly involved and influential. All this challenges Iran’s claim that it will never strive to achieve nuclear weapons. It is important to fix the flaws in the JCPOA. If Iran leaves the JCPOA, there must be a phased international response. The EU will likely snap back sanctions; the IAEA must be more involved with compliance. There must be an escalatory strategy. Iran does respond to pressure. Modulated pressure on Iran must be applied; this could lead to a useful outcome.
Igor Yurgens:
Iran was a reliable partner for Russia. It is rare that Russia cooperates with Euope as it has on the JCPOA. Russia sees itself as a balancing power. It is important to uphold the JCPOA. It is a framework to influence moderate Iranians. A canceled JCPOA is a present to the ayatollahs. It is important to keep international support and prevent bilateral conflict (with the US or Israel). Russia believes in sticks and carrots: it is important cultivate the carrots and achieve a proper balance. It is entirely incorrect to think that pressure will make Iran succumb – rather, increased pressure will encourage Iran to resist.
Norman Roule:
A confrontation between Iran and the West is more likely than in the past. Iran needs stability – it has many social, environmental, and other problems that it cannot address. There is a new generation in Iran, that is more assertive and more tolerant of risk – this is the generation dealing with Iran’s foreign policy. The opposition in Iran is disorganized. No Iranian leader will be convinced that real dialogue with the West is worth its while and serve its purpose. If Iran exits the JCPOA, it is important to understand what Iran wants. Moscow will block cooperative efforts in the UN. Iran will likely opt to keep to the JCPOA – and reap as much benefit as it can from it. Alternatives (such as the European SPV) are not sufficient. There are other options vis-à-vis Iran, and not just war.