Moderator: Vera Michlin-Shapir
Dr. Jonathan Spyer, Dr. Can Kasapoglu, Ms. Jennifer Cafarella and Dr. Carmit Valensi
This session dealt with different aspects of Syria projected in the coming decade. While the Syrian civil war may be over (which is subject to dispute), the country is far from stable. Its likely form of governance will be a revived dictatorship governing a traumatized society. Difficulties in reconstruction are magnified by an economic crisis, although Syria might succeed in reestablishing relations with Arab states. A major question concerns the nature of the reconstruction of the Syrian military: will it be rebuilt according to Russian interests, almost in a Cold war vein, whereby Moscow has a monopoly over the enterprise, or will it follow more Iranian interests toward an attempted permanent geographic presence (along the lines of Iraq). Iran clearly has strong interests in the Syrian state, and Russia will find it difficult to oust Iran entirely from the area, even should it want to. There is also a question of the future of the Turkey-controlled areas, and the resurgence of jihadi groups that are filling the vacuum. The US presence in the area is fragile. Ms. Cafarella posited that Syria is not in a post-war phase, but in terms of economy, territory, and other factors, it is very likely that in ten years Syria will remain a war zone.