Exactly one year ago, on November 27, 2024, rebel organizations affiliated with the central operations room in the Idlib area of northwestern Syria launched a broad surprise offensive against the Syrian regime. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) organization succeeded in toppling Assad’s regime less than two weeks later.
Five insights on Syria in the post-Assad era—and on Israel’s position:
- Next month, the transitional government headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa will mark one year since its establishment. During this year, the government succeeded in rehabilitating the country’s foreign relations and gaining recognition and legitimacy from regional states and the international community, led by the United States, which opened a new and historic chapter in bilateral relations.
- Conversely, on the domestic front, al-Sharaa is struggling to cope with a range of challenges stemming primarily from Syria’s fragile starting point, which he inherited after more than a decade of civil war. These include violence against minorities, driven partly by a sense of popular revenge simmering among Sunnis; a faltering negotiation process to integrate minorities into the state; ISIS activity; and more.
- Despite justified doubts regarding al-Sharaa’s intentions and capabilities to transform Syria into a stable, secure, and inclusive state, the alternative—Syria without a central regime enjoying regional and international support—would mean chaos, fragmentation, and a descent into a full-scale civil war.
- Therefore, a proactive policy and establishing ties with the Syrian government are important principles that will enable Israel to exert influence and guide the new regime toward adopting desirable and positive behavior, while reducing the role of extreme spoilers such as Iran.
- Israel must make courageous decisions, manage risks, and translate its military achievements into political gains. There is now an opportunity for a security agreement that will enable calm along the border and open a new chapter in bilateral relations and in the region as a whole. Should Syria fail to uphold the agreement, Israel can always revert to the military approach, in which it has already proven its excellence.
Exactly one year ago, on November 27, 2024, rebel organizations affiliated with the central operations room in the Idlib area of northwestern Syria launched a broad surprise offensive against the Syrian regime. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) organization succeeded in toppling Assad’s regime less than two weeks later.
Five insights on Syria in the post-Assad era—and on Israel’s position: