Syria

The research field on Syria at INSS aims to deepen the understanding of the country’s developments and address the following key issues: the map of control and the interests of the actors involved; the status of the central regime vis-à-vis Israel and its domestic challenges; the socio-economic condition of the state; and Syria’s transformation into a narco-state due to the Captagon drug production and export industry. Additionally, researchers in this program explore potential future scenarios for Syria. A major focus is placed on Iran’s role in Syria, including the scope of its military and civilian presence and strategies to disrupt and prevent Iran’s military project. This is done by monitoring the intensity of relations between the two countries and Syria’s position within the “Axis of Resistance.” This program also examines the characteristics of Russian involvement in Syria and assesses the impact of regional and international shifts on Syria and its leadership. All of this is analyzed within the context of Israeli strategy and the circumstances influencing it.

This program further evaluates the implications of events in Syria on Israel’s security, its capacity to influence developments in the country, and opportunities to improve Israel’s strategic standing. This is conducted through multiple layers of analysis: (1) In-depth analysis of Syria’s internal dynamics (social, tribal, ethnic, religious, economic, and military); (2) research on the layers of Iranian influence and presence in Syria; (3) mapping the external actors involved, their interests, and their influence; (4) monitoring the political process and both local and international initiatives to end the crisis; (5) outlining and analyzing possible future scenarios for Syria; and (6) assessing the implications for Israel, the future of the “Campaign Between Wars,” and providing recommendations for action.

The central research question is: What are Israel’s fundamental objectives in Syria, and what is the appropriate strategy to achieve them? This research question requires addressing the following sub-questions: Does Syria’s reality as a fragmented state benefit Israel? What should be Israel’s stance toward Assad? How can Iran and its proxies be driven out of Syria? How can US influence in the region be maintained? How do geopolitical processes, particularly Russia–Iran relations and Assad’s reintegration into the Arab world, affect Israeli policy in Syria? Finally, how can Israel optimize its activities in Syria, with particular emphasis on influence in the civilian and humanitarian spheres?

This research field, established in January 2016, includes research work, analysis teams, simulations, workshops, and seminars. It is funded by the generous contribution of the Lapidus Foundation, founded by Ruth and Sid Lapidus.