Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Jordan has sounded aggressive rhetoric toward Israel. For example, the Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned Israel for the alleged attack on al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza, noting that it was “contrary to all moral and humanitarian values,” and did not amend its statement even after it became clear that the blast was caused by a failed launch by Islamic Jihad. In addition, the palace has yet to condemn the massacre committed by Hamas on October 7, and Queen Rania even questioned the magnitude of the atrocities that were reported.
The main consideration behind the critical and even hostile Jordanian tone toward Israel is public opinion, as the majority of Jordan’s population is Palestinian, which in part identifies with Hamas. This was reflected in mass protests in several cities, including in front of the Israeli embassy in Amman, and in attempts by demonstrators to approach the Israeli border, which were stopped by the Jordanian security forces with the help of tear gas. Public opinion considerations most likely led to the cancellation of the quadrilateral summit that was planned to be held in Amman with the participation of President Biden.
At the same time, the Jordanian regime is working on the diplomatic level to stop the escalation, believing that its continuation will harm the kingdom. In this framework, King Abdullah participated in the peace summit in Cairo, met with leaders in the region, and embarked on a round of meetings in Europe, while the Foreign Minister traveled to the UN headquarters in New York and is interviewed often by the media. Several main concerns loom over the palace: First is the possible spread of the war to the West Bank and Jerusalem, which may cause unrest to the east. Second is the outbreak of a regional war that will impact negatively on all the countries of the region; third is the strengthening of radical forces, led by the resistance axis supported by Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Jordan; and fourth is the deportation and migration of Palestinian refugees from the West Bank and Gaza to Jordan and Egypt.
In recent years, Jordan has been plagued by an ongoing economic crisis, due in part to hosting one and a half million refugees from Iraq and Syria, the impact of the Covid pandemic on the tourism sector, and a lack of water and energy. These circumstances heighten its vulnerability to the ramifications of the war in Gaza, but also strengthen the kingdom's security and economic interest in maintaining peace with Israel, which exports gas and water to Jordan. The more the protests in Jordan increase, the more the country may be dragged into actual protest measures against Israel, such as recalling ambassadors.
One of Hamas' goals in the campaign is to damage the existing and emerging peace ties between Israel and its neighbors, and Israel should try to prevent it from achieving this. To this end, it must calm Jordan's concerns about the deportation of Palestinians to its territory, and harness it – along with other countries, including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia – to shape a positive and stable vision in the Palestinian and regional arenas the day after the war.
Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Jordan has sounded aggressive rhetoric toward Israel. For example, the Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned Israel for the alleged attack on al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza, noting that it was “contrary to all moral and humanitarian values,” and did not amend its statement even after it became clear that the blast was caused by a failed launch by Islamic Jihad. In addition, the palace has yet to condemn the massacre committed by Hamas on October 7, and Queen Rania even questioned the magnitude of the atrocities that were reported.
The main consideration behind the critical and even hostile Jordanian tone toward Israel is public opinion, as the majority of Jordan’s population is Palestinian, which in part identifies with Hamas. This was reflected in mass protests in several cities, including in front of the Israeli embassy in Amman, and in attempts by demonstrators to approach the Israeli border, which were stopped by the Jordanian security forces with the help of tear gas. Public opinion considerations most likely led to the cancellation of the quadrilateral summit that was planned to be held in Amman with the participation of President Biden.
At the same time, the Jordanian regime is working on the diplomatic level to stop the escalation, believing that its continuation will harm the kingdom. In this framework, King Abdullah participated in the peace summit in Cairo, met with leaders in the region, and embarked on a round of meetings in Europe, while the Foreign Minister traveled to the UN headquarters in New York and is interviewed often by the media. Several main concerns loom over the palace: First is the possible spread of the war to the West Bank and Jerusalem, which may cause unrest to the east. Second is the outbreak of a regional war that will impact negatively on all the countries of the region; third is the strengthening of radical forces, led by the resistance axis supported by Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Jordan; and fourth is the deportation and migration of Palestinian refugees from the West Bank and Gaza to Jordan and Egypt.
In recent years, Jordan has been plagued by an ongoing economic crisis, due in part to hosting one and a half million refugees from Iraq and Syria, the impact of the Covid pandemic on the tourism sector, and a lack of water and energy. These circumstances heighten its vulnerability to the ramifications of the war in Gaza, but also strengthen the kingdom's security and economic interest in maintaining peace with Israel, which exports gas and water to Jordan. The more the protests in Jordan increase, the more the country may be dragged into actual protest measures against Israel, such as recalling ambassadors.
One of Hamas' goals in the campaign is to damage the existing and emerging peace ties between Israel and its neighbors, and Israel should try to prevent it from achieving this. To this end, it must calm Jordan's concerns about the deportation of Palestinians to its territory, and harness it – along with other countries, including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia – to shape a positive and stable vision in the Palestinian and regional arenas the day after the war.