The new phase of fighting in Lebanon, marked by the pager and walkie-talkie operations and a series of assassinations of Hezbollah’s top leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, has placed Iran in a new, unexpected strategic situation, with potentially serious consequences. The IDF’s ground entry into Lebanon, along with the continued attacks on weapons sites, the significant losses among Hezbollah operatives, and the displacement of approximately one million residents from south Lebanon, constitute a real threat to Hezbollah’s standing in Lebanon for the first time.
In this context, after deliberation, the Iranian regime decided to attack Israel on October 1,while linking the assassination of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran with that of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah in Beirut. Iran’s decision to launch about 200 ballistic missiles at several targets, including near Tel Aviv, reflects its strong sense of urgency to restore its deterrence against Israel. This move also demonstrates to other regional axis powers that Iran remains committed to supporting them, and it will not abandon them on the battlefield.
Alongside the offensive operation, the Iranian regime has initiated diplomatic efforts to curb the possible fallout in Lebanon. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Beirut on October 4, meeting with interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament. Berri, who long served as a link between Nasrallah and the American administration, participated in the discussions led by US Envoy Amos Hochstein on a potential resolution to end the conflict. The Iranian visit to Lebanon and then to Syria was intended to reaffirm Iran’s support for Hezbollah and to ensure that the other regional forces do not exploit the situation to pursue political moves that could harm Iran’s interests.
In the background, there have been growing calls from Washington and Beirut to advance the election of a president in Lebanon—a process that Hezbollah has prevented for nearly two years. There are also increasing demands to sever the connection that Nasrallah created between the conflicts in Gaza and in the south of Lebanon. Following Araghchi’s visit, Tehran, faced with the loss of senior officials—such as the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon who was injured in the pager attack and General Nilfaroshan, the deputy commander of the Quds Force responsible for Lebanon and Syria, who was killed with Nasrallah—had to send another senior official. On October 12, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, arrived at the invitation of Nabih Berri, bringing a message to Hezbollah from Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and its president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
These high-level visits reflect the significant blow Iran has suffered in Lebanon, as it struggles to coordinate effectively with Hezbollah due to the loss of the organization’s senior officials and key Iranian figures responsible for managing relations with both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. The recent developments in Lebanon as well as anticipating Israel’s response to the Iranian attack, have forced the regime to confront a new strategic reality. For the first time, Iran faces Israel without the deterrence of a fully functioning Hezbollah, which can no longer fulfill its critical role.
The new phase of fighting in Lebanon, marked by the pager and walkie-talkie operations and a series of assassinations of Hezbollah’s top leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, has placed Iran in a new, unexpected strategic situation, with potentially serious consequences. The IDF’s ground entry into Lebanon, along with the continued attacks on weapons sites, the significant losses among Hezbollah operatives, and the displacement of approximately one million residents from south Lebanon, constitute a real threat to Hezbollah’s standing in Lebanon for the first time.
In this context, after deliberation, the Iranian regime decided to attack Israel on October 1,while linking the assassination of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran with that of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah in Beirut. Iran’s decision to launch about 200 ballistic missiles at several targets, including near Tel Aviv, reflects its strong sense of urgency to restore its deterrence against Israel. This move also demonstrates to other regional axis powers that Iran remains committed to supporting them, and it will not abandon them on the battlefield.
Alongside the offensive operation, the Iranian regime has initiated diplomatic efforts to curb the possible fallout in Lebanon. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Beirut on October 4, meeting with interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament. Berri, who long served as a link between Nasrallah and the American administration, participated in the discussions led by US Envoy Amos Hochstein on a potential resolution to end the conflict. The Iranian visit to Lebanon and then to Syria was intended to reaffirm Iran’s support for Hezbollah and to ensure that the other regional forces do not exploit the situation to pursue political moves that could harm Iran’s interests.
In the background, there have been growing calls from Washington and Beirut to advance the election of a president in Lebanon—a process that Hezbollah has prevented for nearly two years. There are also increasing demands to sever the connection that Nasrallah created between the conflicts in Gaza and in the south of Lebanon. Following Araghchi’s visit, Tehran, faced with the loss of senior officials—such as the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon who was injured in the pager attack and General Nilfaroshan, the deputy commander of the Quds Force responsible for Lebanon and Syria, who was killed with Nasrallah—had to send another senior official. On October 12, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, arrived at the invitation of Nabih Berri, bringing a message to Hezbollah from Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and its president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
These high-level visits reflect the significant blow Iran has suffered in Lebanon, as it struggles to coordinate effectively with Hezbollah due to the loss of the organization’s senior officials and key Iranian figures responsible for managing relations with both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. The recent developments in Lebanon as well as anticipating Israel’s response to the Iranian attack, have forced the regime to confront a new strategic reality. For the first time, Iran faces Israel without the deterrence of a fully functioning Hezbollah, which can no longer fulfill its critical role.