Since the beginning of the war, the Iranian political elite has engaged in an extensive global diplomatic campaign, unusual in its intensity and scope, to curb the war in Gaza. The goal is to ensure the victory image of Hamas and allow it to remain in power in the Strip. However, Iran quickly realized that its diplomatic pressure in the regional and international arena was not enough to stop the war, and that it also had no direct leverage over Israel beyond what already existed, i.e., attacks by Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Iran estimates that the only element that has the power to influence Israel is the United States, so it has exerted combined pressure on Washington for the past two weeks, including attacks by the Iraqi militias on US forces in Iraq and Syria, alongside political pressures. Washington has faced attacks by the Iraqi militias in the past, but this time it has been more intense, even if there were no casualties. The response, at this stage, has remained within the familiar parameters of a missile attack on the militia bases on the Iraq-Syria border. However, the unusual concentration of US naval and air power is significant backup to the administration's warnings toward Iran and the militias.
The intense US activity vis-à-vis Iraq in the last two days is noteworthy. Secretary of State Blinken arrived for a quick visit for talks with the Iraqi political elite, which continues to see the US presence and assistance to Iraq's security forces as an asset. Blinken reportedly received a promise from the Iraqi Prime Minister that he would work to prevent harm to the Americans. Immediately after Blinken’s visit, the Iraqi Prime Minister left for a visit to Tehran, where he met with Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Raisi. In the statements they issued, both emphasized their demand to put pressure on Washington, which they deem responsible for the continuation of the war in Gaza, through the weapons and intelligence it provides to Israel. This is how Iraq finds itself between the Iranian hammer and the American anvil while hoping not to become a battlefield between Iran and the US.
Since the beginning of the war, the Iranian political elite has engaged in an extensive global diplomatic campaign, unusual in its intensity and scope, to curb the war in Gaza. The goal is to ensure the victory image of Hamas and allow it to remain in power in the Strip. However, Iran quickly realized that its diplomatic pressure in the regional and international arena was not enough to stop the war, and that it also had no direct leverage over Israel beyond what already existed, i.e., attacks by Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Iran estimates that the only element that has the power to influence Israel is the United States, so it has exerted combined pressure on Washington for the past two weeks, including attacks by the Iraqi militias on US forces in Iraq and Syria, alongside political pressures. Washington has faced attacks by the Iraqi militias in the past, but this time it has been more intense, even if there were no casualties. The response, at this stage, has remained within the familiar parameters of a missile attack on the militia bases on the Iraq-Syria border. However, the unusual concentration of US naval and air power is significant backup to the administration's warnings toward Iran and the militias.
The intense US activity vis-à-vis Iraq in the last two days is noteworthy. Secretary of State Blinken arrived for a quick visit for talks with the Iraqi political elite, which continues to see the US presence and assistance to Iraq's security forces as an asset. Blinken reportedly received a promise from the Iraqi Prime Minister that he would work to prevent harm to the Americans. Immediately after Blinken’s visit, the Iraqi Prime Minister left for a visit to Tehran, where he met with Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Raisi. In the statements they issued, both emphasized their demand to put pressure on Washington, which they deem responsible for the continuation of the war in Gaza, through the weapons and intelligence it provides to Israel. This is how Iraq finds itself between the Iranian hammer and the American anvil while hoping not to become a battlefield between Iran and the US.