Israel isn’t on the way to a “total victory,” which will not happen after October 7. We have not yet destroyed Hamas, nor have we completely defeated it, and we still have 120 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, an entire region of our country is still abandoned and being shelled in the north. The better news is that Hamas seems to have reached a turning point.
This is the same turning point that the IDF reached against Hamas, and it may be a turning point in the campaign. This turning point can be explained as the point where the enemy has lost the will to continue fighting and is unable to fight in a way that changes its operative situation.
There is supporting evidence for this:
- Despite eliminating Mohammed Deif, Hamas seeks a ceasefire and a hostage deal.
- The responses to the elimination of Deif so far have been weak. This doesn’t mean that Hamas has lost all its rocket fire capability (even to the population centers in Israel).
- The fighting by Hamas’s military arm is conducted sporadically—as independent guerrilla cells rather than as units and formations.
- Hamas’s lifeline from Egypt has been cut off (but not yet definitively as there are still more tunnels, and the underground control and security arrangements at the Rafah crossing need to be completed).
If this is indeed the case, what’s needed now is the pursuit of victory. That is, maintaining the operational pressure to achieve the goals of the war:
- Returning the kidnapped (in a deal).
- Replacing the rule of Hamas (with an international arrangement, which is on the table).
- Restoring normalcy to the north of Israel by improving the security situation, preferably in an internationally mediated arrangement.
It’s not over yet. The possibility of losing the achievement, as we did six months ago, still exists. The political echelon now has an opportunity again to make difficult decisions. Aiming for “total victory” is a gamble that may end with nothing.
* This piece was first published in Hebrew on the N12 website
Israel isn’t on the way to a “total victory,” which will not happen after October 7. We have not yet destroyed Hamas, nor have we completely defeated it, and we still have 120 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, an entire region of our country is still abandoned and being shelled in the north. The better news is that Hamas seems to have reached a turning point.
This is the same turning point that the IDF reached against Hamas, and it may be a turning point in the campaign. This turning point can be explained as the point where the enemy has lost the will to continue fighting and is unable to fight in a way that changes its operative situation.
There is supporting evidence for this:
If this is indeed the case, what’s needed now is the pursuit of victory. That is, maintaining the operational pressure to achieve the goals of the war:
It’s not over yet. The possibility of losing the achievement, as we did six months ago, still exists. The political echelon now has an opportunity again to make difficult decisions. Aiming for “total victory” is a gamble that may end with nothing.
* This piece was first published in Hebrew on the N12 website