The recent escalation in the fighting in the north, following the significant blow to Hezbollah during the pager explosions and the assassinations of senior officials, including Ibrahim Aqil, has provoked sharp reactions in Iran. Iran’s vice president for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, publicly shared the condolence letter he sent to Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and called on the international community to bring an end to the “crimes of the Zionist regime.” Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have continued to issue statements promising a delayed response to the assassination of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
However, the reactions from Iran’s senior officials, particularly the foreign minister and the president, reflect a mix of embarrassment and confusion. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Israel of trying to drag the United States and Iran into war, stating that Iran “will not fall into Israel’s trap,” implicitly distancing Tehran from joining the conflict. In another statement, Araghchi warned that “Iran will not remain indifferent to the latest attack by the Zionist regime in Lebanon,” without making a concrete commitment to any direct involvement. Iran’s president added that while his country does not seek to destabilize the region, it will act against those who harm its allies. He was quick to emphasize that a war in the Middle East would be futile and have irreversible consequences.
This escalation in Lebanon comes at a problematic time for Iran’s leadership, coinciding with President Masoud Pezeshkian and his foreign minister’s visit to New York for the session of the United Nations General Assembly. This is the new president’s first international event and an important opportunity to engage with world leaders, journalists, and influencers. On the eve of their visit, both the president and the foreign minister reiterated their desire to renew the nuclear talks and lift the sanctions on Iran. Following these statements, Iran’s deputy foreign minister met with Enrique Mora, the European Union’s envoy for negotiations with Iran and the one who was responsible for the nuclear talks in 2021–2022. The Iranians emphasized that this meeting focused on “the lifting of nuclear sanctions on Iran” and addressing the concerns of the international community.
There is no doubt that intensive consultations are taking place between Iran and Hezbollah to determine their next steps. Their goal so far has been to avoid an all-out war while preserving Hezbollah’s strength both in future confrontations with Israel and in its role as a key player among the militias in Iraq and Yemen. The decision on how to proceed in Lebanon rests with Nasrallah. If he chooses to continue the fighting, Iran’s recruitment of militias from Iraq and Afghanistan could play a role in extending the fighting and inflicting damage on Israel, even if Tehran prefers to de-escalate. At this stage, Tehran is likely to avoid any direct involvement, reserving that option only in the case of a particularly severe scenario for Hezbollah.
The recent escalation in the fighting in the north, following the significant blow to Hezbollah during the pager explosions and the assassinations of senior officials, including Ibrahim Aqil, has provoked sharp reactions in Iran. Iran’s vice president for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, publicly shared the condolence letter he sent to Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and called on the international community to bring an end to the “crimes of the Zionist regime.” Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have continued to issue statements promising a delayed response to the assassination of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
However, the reactions from Iran’s senior officials, particularly the foreign minister and the president, reflect a mix of embarrassment and confusion. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Israel of trying to drag the United States and Iran into war, stating that Iran “will not fall into Israel’s trap,” implicitly distancing Tehran from joining the conflict. In another statement, Araghchi warned that “Iran will not remain indifferent to the latest attack by the Zionist regime in Lebanon,” without making a concrete commitment to any direct involvement. Iran’s president added that while his country does not seek to destabilize the region, it will act against those who harm its allies. He was quick to emphasize that a war in the Middle East would be futile and have irreversible consequences.
This escalation in Lebanon comes at a problematic time for Iran’s leadership, coinciding with President Masoud Pezeshkian and his foreign minister’s visit to New York for the session of the United Nations General Assembly. This is the new president’s first international event and an important opportunity to engage with world leaders, journalists, and influencers. On the eve of their visit, both the president and the foreign minister reiterated their desire to renew the nuclear talks and lift the sanctions on Iran. Following these statements, Iran’s deputy foreign minister met with Enrique Mora, the European Union’s envoy for negotiations with Iran and the one who was responsible for the nuclear talks in 2021–2022. The Iranians emphasized that this meeting focused on “the lifting of nuclear sanctions on Iran” and addressing the concerns of the international community.
There is no doubt that intensive consultations are taking place between Iran and Hezbollah to determine their next steps. Their goal so far has been to avoid an all-out war while preserving Hezbollah’s strength both in future confrontations with Israel and in its role as a key player among the militias in Iraq and Yemen. The decision on how to proceed in Lebanon rests with Nasrallah. If he chooses to continue the fighting, Iran’s recruitment of militias from Iraq and Afghanistan could play a role in extending the fighting and inflicting damage on Israel, even if Tehran prefers to de-escalate. At this stage, Tehran is likely to avoid any direct involvement, reserving that option only in the case of a particularly severe scenario for Hezbollah.