The Israeli strike last night conveys three clear messages to the Iranian regime, both operationally and strategically:
1. Israel targeted essential components of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile industry. In addition, Israel destroyed Iran’s air defense systems, leaving the country vulnerable to repeated Israeli Air Force strikes. These systems, of Russian origin, also demonstrate the superiority of Western weapons over Eastern ones. Given that Russia needs these systems for its war against Ukraine, it’s questionable whether Russia will agree to sell additional systems to Iran.
2. Israel’s offensive capabilities surpass Iran’s defensive capabilities. Comparing Israel’s defensive capabilities with Iran’s offensive ones reveals Israel’s clear operational superiority over Iran. In other words, Israel managed to strike all intended targets, while Iran did not. Israel now has a strong defense system, and thanks to coordination with the United States, it has enough interceptors to handle further attacks from Iran.
3. The decision to escalate to a broader conflict lies with Iran’s leader, Khamenei. The scope of the strike allows Iran’s supreme leader to choose between escalating or reducing tensions. He must consider two key factors:
Operationally: Does Iran have enough missiles to sustain a prolonged campaign against Israel, given that production has been disrupted?
Strategically: Could Israel’s next strike target not only military sites but also energy and nuclear facilities? This could indicate that Israel might be preparing to legitimize a larger attack, one that Khamenei genuinely fears, as it would indeed pose a danger to the regime.
It can be said that Israel has specifically targeted Iran’s strategic military capabilities, paving the way for further blows. Iran’s leader faces a difficult dilemma: No response would signify an historic weakness, while a response would allow Israel to strike where it truly hurts. All this is happening as Hezbollah, the significant threat to Israel, is weakened and no longer a restraining force.
Another point to consider is the US Elections. In two weeks, President Biden will enter a “lame duck” period, potentially giving him more freedom to act and shape his legacy. This shift could affect the decision-making of both Iran and Israel. As for Iran, the United States might strike its nuclear facilities. As for Israel, the Americans could impose stricter limitations on the conflict.
* The article was first published in Hebrew on the N12 website.
The Israeli strike last night conveys three clear messages to the Iranian regime, both operationally and strategically:
1. Israel targeted essential components of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile industry. In addition, Israel destroyed Iran’s air defense systems, leaving the country vulnerable to repeated Israeli Air Force strikes. These systems, of Russian origin, also demonstrate the superiority of Western weapons over Eastern ones. Given that Russia needs these systems for its war against Ukraine, it’s questionable whether Russia will agree to sell additional systems to Iran.
2. Israel’s offensive capabilities surpass Iran’s defensive capabilities. Comparing Israel’s defensive capabilities with Iran’s offensive ones reveals Israel’s clear operational superiority over Iran. In other words, Israel managed to strike all intended targets, while Iran did not. Israel now has a strong defense system, and thanks to coordination with the United States, it has enough interceptors to handle further attacks from Iran.
3. The decision to escalate to a broader conflict lies with Iran’s leader, Khamenei. The scope of the strike allows Iran’s supreme leader to choose between escalating or reducing tensions. He must consider two key factors:
Operationally: Does Iran have enough missiles to sustain a prolonged campaign against Israel, given that production has been disrupted?
Strategically: Could Israel’s next strike target not only military sites but also energy and nuclear facilities? This could indicate that Israel might be preparing to legitimize a larger attack, one that Khamenei genuinely fears, as it would indeed pose a danger to the regime.
It can be said that Israel has specifically targeted Iran’s strategic military capabilities, paving the way for further blows. Iran’s leader faces a difficult dilemma: No response would signify an historic weakness, while a response would allow Israel to strike where it truly hurts. All this is happening as Hezbollah, the significant threat to Israel, is weakened and no longer a restraining force.
Another point to consider is the US Elections. In two weeks, President Biden will enter a “lame duck” period, potentially giving him more freedom to act and shape his legacy. This shift could affect the decision-making of both Iran and Israel. As for Iran, the United States might strike its nuclear facilities. As for Israel, the Americans could impose stricter limitations on the conflict.
* The article was first published in Hebrew on the N12 website.