In hindsight, the assassinations of senior Hezbollah figures and Quds Force leaders in Lebanon and Syria dramatically undermined the ability of Iran’s Axis of Resistance to assist the Syrian army, likely sealing the fate of Assad’s regime. Without Assad and with a weakened Hezbollah, Iran will be forced to recalculate its strategy and possibly even reconsider its nuclear approach to “compensate” for the severe blow to its axis.
The series of events in recent months, particularly the heavy blow suffered by Hezbollah at the hands of Israel and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, threaten to dismantle the defense system that Qasem Soleimani so successfully built for Tehran. Soleimani essentially established the “Axis of Resistance,” which relied on Iran’s ability to advance its interests in the Middle East, deter Israel and the United States from acting against Iran, and keep war away from Iran’s borders without paying a significant price for achieving these goals. Even if Tehran seeks to continue arming its proxies, its ability to control them has been dramatically eroded. Moreover, rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities without Assad is highly questionable. Thus, it’s likely that Iran will seek to finalize its Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft deal with Russia, rebuild its air defense capabilities—which suffered a heavy blow from Israeli strikes—and renew its missile production to further threaten Israel.
The biggest question mark concerns Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran could theoretically enrich uranium to a military-grade level of 90% “as early as tomorrow” and attempt to build a nuclear facility within a few months. This could theoretically “compensate” for the damage to the axis and significantly strengthen Iran’s deterrence. This is also why senior regime officials (current and former) have repeatedly emphasized the need to reconsider Tehran’s nuclear strategy. However, such a move without Hezbollah’s protective umbrella, combined with Israel’s demonstrated capability to strike in Iran and the presence of President Trump in the White House, could pose a direct threat to the regime in Tehran. This escalates the dilemma faced by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to an unprecedented level.
True, it is still too early to write off Iran or the other elements of the axis, but it is doubtful whether their situation has ever been as dire since Qasem Soleimani conceived the idea of the Axis of Resistance. This reality “changes the rules of the game” and significantly weakens Iran’s influence in the Middle East for at least the coming years.
The full article was originally published on the “Maariv” website.
In hindsight, the assassinations of senior Hezbollah figures and Quds Force leaders in Lebanon and Syria dramatically undermined the ability of Iran’s Axis of Resistance to assist the Syrian army, likely sealing the fate of Assad’s regime. Without Assad and with a weakened Hezbollah, Iran will be forced to recalculate its strategy and possibly even reconsider its nuclear approach to “compensate” for the severe blow to its axis.
The series of events in recent months, particularly the heavy blow suffered by Hezbollah at the hands of Israel and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, threaten to dismantle the defense system that Qasem Soleimani so successfully built for Tehran. Soleimani essentially established the “Axis of Resistance,” which relied on Iran’s ability to advance its interests in the Middle East, deter Israel and the United States from acting against Iran, and keep war away from Iran’s borders without paying a significant price for achieving these goals. Even if Tehran seeks to continue arming its proxies, its ability to control them has been dramatically eroded. Moreover, rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities without Assad is highly questionable. Thus, it’s likely that Iran will seek to finalize its Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft deal with Russia, rebuild its air defense capabilities—which suffered a heavy blow from Israeli strikes—and renew its missile production to further threaten Israel.
The biggest question mark concerns Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran could theoretically enrich uranium to a military-grade level of 90% “as early as tomorrow” and attempt to build a nuclear facility within a few months. This could theoretically “compensate” for the damage to the axis and significantly strengthen Iran’s deterrence. This is also why senior regime officials (current and former) have repeatedly emphasized the need to reconsider Tehran’s nuclear strategy. However, such a move without Hezbollah’s protective umbrella, combined with Israel’s demonstrated capability to strike in Iran and the presence of President Trump in the White House, could pose a direct threat to the regime in Tehran. This escalates the dilemma faced by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to an unprecedented level.
True, it is still too early to write off Iran or the other elements of the axis, but it is doubtful whether their situation has ever been as dire since Qasem Soleimani conceived the idea of the Axis of Resistance. This reality “changes the rules of the game” and significantly weakens Iran’s influence in the Middle East for at least the coming years.
The full article was originally published on the “Maariv” website.