October 8, 2023, will always stand in the shadow of the day before it—a day when Israel was struck by a disaster that will never be forgotten. However, on this day, the war changed its course. Nasrallah’s decision, in full coordination with the Iranians, to join Hamas and open a second front on the Lebanese border transformed the conflict with Hamas into something different: a multi-front war between Iran, its proxies, and Israel. Today, Israel is fighting on seven fronts simultaneously, in line with a strategy that Nasrallah helped design and ultimately paid for with his life.
While the war in Gaza has been difficult, the Lebanese front has remained the primary theater of conflict against Iran’s Shiite axis. During the months of the war, Hezbollah has inflicted a heavy toll on the IDF, the Israeli home front, and particularly the residents of the north who have been evacuated from their homes. Although the war’s timing was imposed by Hamas, Hezbollah opted for a “war of attrition” strategy in the hope of exploiting the opportunity to improve the balance of power with the IDF and advance Iranian interests. But as the war dragged on, Hezbollah has paid an increasing price, pulling its patron Iran into direct involvement—despite Iran’s reluctance to become an active participant.
The Israeli cabinet’s decision on September 16 to include the return of those evacuated in the north to their homes as one of the war’s objectives and to shift the focus of the fighting to the northern front was a turning point in the campaign. The IDF launched a series of highly effective operations, made possible due to years of intelligence gathering and operational readiness, in response to the growing conventional threat from Iran’s main proxy on Israel’s northern border. These operations, along with the ground activity in southern Lebanon that began on October 1st, have inflicted severe blows to Hezbollah. Within a few weeks, the organization lost most of its senior military leadership and a significant portion of its military capabilities. Although Hezbollah continues to exist for the time being, it has become a weakened, battered, and disoriented organization, lacking in leadership and suffering daily losses.
A year has passed, and the war continues with no clear end in sight. However, at this stage, it appears that even though the defeated Hezbollah may not disappear, Israel’s achievements offer an opportunity to change the security landscape along the Lebanese border and affect Hezbollah’s status within Lebanon. Israel plays a central role in shaping the new security reality in the north through its military actions and in formulating a political solution to allow the return of the residents of the north to their homes as promised. Yet, Israel’s ability to influence the necessary change required within Lebanon—needed to free itself from Hezbollah and Iran—remain limited.
October 8, 2023, will always stand in the shadow of the day before it—a day when Israel was struck by a disaster that will never be forgotten. However, on this day, the war changed its course. Nasrallah’s decision, in full coordination with the Iranians, to join Hamas and open a second front on the Lebanese border transformed the conflict with Hamas into something different: a multi-front war between Iran, its proxies, and Israel. Today, Israel is fighting on seven fronts simultaneously, in line with a strategy that Nasrallah helped design and ultimately paid for with his life.
While the war in Gaza has been difficult, the Lebanese front has remained the primary theater of conflict against Iran’s Shiite axis. During the months of the war, Hezbollah has inflicted a heavy toll on the IDF, the Israeli home front, and particularly the residents of the north who have been evacuated from their homes. Although the war’s timing was imposed by Hamas, Hezbollah opted for a “war of attrition” strategy in the hope of exploiting the opportunity to improve the balance of power with the IDF and advance Iranian interests. But as the war dragged on, Hezbollah has paid an increasing price, pulling its patron Iran into direct involvement—despite Iran’s reluctance to become an active participant.
The Israeli cabinet’s decision on September 16 to include the return of those evacuated in the north to their homes as one of the war’s objectives and to shift the focus of the fighting to the northern front was a turning point in the campaign. The IDF launched a series of highly effective operations, made possible due to years of intelligence gathering and operational readiness, in response to the growing conventional threat from Iran’s main proxy on Israel’s northern border. These operations, along with the ground activity in southern Lebanon that began on October 1st, have inflicted severe blows to Hezbollah. Within a few weeks, the organization lost most of its senior military leadership and a significant portion of its military capabilities. Although Hezbollah continues to exist for the time being, it has become a weakened, battered, and disoriented organization, lacking in leadership and suffering daily losses.
A year has passed, and the war continues with no clear end in sight. However, at this stage, it appears that even though the defeated Hezbollah may not disappear, Israel’s achievements offer an opportunity to change the security landscape along the Lebanese border and affect Hezbollah’s status within Lebanon. Israel plays a central role in shaping the new security reality in the north through its military actions and in formulating a political solution to allow the return of the residents of the north to their homes as promised. Yet, Israel’s ability to influence the necessary change required within Lebanon—needed to free itself from Hezbollah and Iran—remain limited.