100 days.
100 days into the war, we have reached a critical decision point. After we dismantled most of Hamas’ military capabilities (although we have not yet dealt with the Rafah Brigade and the leadership has not been eliminated, but the majority is behind us), now the dilemma is political.
The political level has two options:
- A hostage deal brokered by Qatar, in a deal that will bring the end of the war. Ostensibly it has no political cost, but there is a chance it will allow Hamas to continue to rule.
- A US-meditated regional deal with Saudi Arabia. In this case as well, the war will end with a hostage deal, but the price will include Israeli consent to a political process vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority, which will return to control Gaza.
The government can of course postpone the decision and continue only with the military activity. Politically, this is the safest course for the current coalition. This path does not lead to any stable end state, and it does not guarantee the achievement of any of the war's goals.
Therefore, Israel's leadership must make one decision and determine what is more important. An unpopular political vision that will ensure the change of the security reality in the Middle East, and partial achievement of the war's goals; or alternatively, military determination to intensify the Hamas defeat, and perhaps open another war front in the north that will weaken Hezbollah. The war will earn the support of the majority of the public, but it is doubtful whether in the end we will gain the fundamental change in the national security balance. Moreover, even in this case, the achievement of the entire set of war goals is questionable, primarily concerning the return of the hostages.
100 days.
100 days into the war, we have reached a critical decision point. After we dismantled most of Hamas’ military capabilities (although we have not yet dealt with the Rafah Brigade and the leadership has not been eliminated, but the majority is behind us), now the dilemma is political.
The political level has two options:
The government can of course postpone the decision and continue only with the military activity. Politically, this is the safest course for the current coalition. This path does not lead to any stable end state, and it does not guarantee the achievement of any of the war's goals.
Therefore, Israel's leadership must make one decision and determine what is more important. An unpopular political vision that will ensure the change of the security reality in the Middle East, and partial achievement of the war's goals; or alternatively, military determination to intensify the Hamas defeat, and perhaps open another war front in the north that will weaken Hezbollah. The war will earn the support of the majority of the public, but it is doubtful whether in the end we will gain the fundamental change in the national security balance. Moreover, even in this case, the achievement of the entire set of war goals is questionable, primarily concerning the return of the hostages.