Bahrain and Iran are progressing towards renewing their diplomatic relations following a historic visit by the Iranian foreign minister to Bahrain—the first in 17 years. Bahrain is the last Gulf state to have severed ties with Iran in 2016 and has yet to restore them. An agreement between them would effectively complete the regional "détente," where states in the region that had been at odds over the past decade achieve reconciliation.
On the surface, this might appear to be a minor event, but it holds special significance. Bahrain is considered the most hawkish Gulf state toward Iran due to the Sunni regime's concern over Iranian influence on the Shia majority within its population. Iran has historically claimed sovereignty over Bahrain, and tensions between them escalated during Iran’s support for the Arab Spring protests in Bahrain and following Bahrain's normalization with Israel in 2020. Furthermore, Bahrain hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet, making it a strategic asset for the U.S. in its stance against Iran.
Like the rest of the fragile Arab world, Bahrain has chosen a dual path in dealing with Iran: rapprochement alongside strengthening it’s security. Bahrain feels safer to thaw relations with Tehran after its patron, Saudi Arabia, did so last year, and following its own security cooperation agreements with both Israel and the United States. Bahrain is keenly aware of Iran's military superiority and geographical proximity, and the timing is not coincidental: Bahrain is observing the current conflict between Israel and the Iranian axis with trepidation, prioritizing its own interests to prevent the conflict from reaching its doorstep.
The Gulf states, justifiably so, harbor deep concerns about Iran and its proxies. Iran seeks to restore diplomatic relations with the Gulf states as a way to break out of its isolation, while simultaneously engaging in intimidation, subversion, and terror to further destabilize the Arab world. The Gulf states’ instrumental rapprochement with Iran is part of a risk-mitigation strategy. Renewed relations between Bahrain and Iran are not a foregone conclusion and are unlikely to harm Bahrain's relations with Israel. However, domestic pressures—particularly from the Shia population—have already led to a cooling in Bahrain-Israel relations amid the Gaza conflict.
Bahrain and Iran are progressing towards renewing their diplomatic relations following a historic visit by the Iranian foreign minister to Bahrain—the first in 17 years. Bahrain is the last Gulf state to have severed ties with Iran in 2016 and has yet to restore them. An agreement between them would effectively complete the regional "détente," where states in the region that had been at odds over the past decade achieve reconciliation.
On the surface, this might appear to be a minor event, but it holds special significance. Bahrain is considered the most hawkish Gulf state toward Iran due to the Sunni regime's concern over Iranian influence on the Shia majority within its population. Iran has historically claimed sovereignty over Bahrain, and tensions between them escalated during Iran’s support for the Arab Spring protests in Bahrain and following Bahrain's normalization with Israel in 2020. Furthermore, Bahrain hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet, making it a strategic asset for the U.S. in its stance against Iran.
Like the rest of the fragile Arab world, Bahrain has chosen a dual path in dealing with Iran: rapprochement alongside strengthening it’s security. Bahrain feels safer to thaw relations with Tehran after its patron, Saudi Arabia, did so last year, and following its own security cooperation agreements with both Israel and the United States. Bahrain is keenly aware of Iran's military superiority and geographical proximity, and the timing is not coincidental: Bahrain is observing the current conflict between Israel and the Iranian axis with trepidation, prioritizing its own interests to prevent the conflict from reaching its doorstep.
The Gulf states, justifiably so, harbor deep concerns about Iran and its proxies. Iran seeks to restore diplomatic relations with the Gulf states as a way to break out of its isolation, while simultaneously engaging in intimidation, subversion, and terror to further destabilize the Arab world. The Gulf states’ instrumental rapprochement with Iran is part of a risk-mitigation strategy. Renewed relations between Bahrain and Iran are not a foregone conclusion and are unlikely to harm Bahrain's relations with Israel. However, domestic pressures—particularly from the Shia population—have already led to a cooling in Bahrain-Israel relations amid the Gaza conflict.