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The assassination of Nasrallah is nothing short of an upheaval in the Middle East. This event has far-reaching strategic implications for Iran’s Axis of Resistance and beyond. Although the shock waves have yet to fully hit the region, and it’s still too early to assess the impact, in the meantime, here are some initial insights into the situation:

1. Nasrallah was not just another military commander—he was a symbol, a charismatic leader, a skilled politician, and widely admired by Shiites and Israel’s opponents. While it’s true that anyone can be replaced, it’s unlikely at the level and caliber of Nasrallah. He knew how to skillfully manage the multiple levels of warfare—balancing a long-term religious and ideological vision with complex operations and immediate tactics. He is credited as being responsible for major victories and achievements against Israel—from Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 to the “divine victory” of 2006.
2. The likely person to succeed Nasrallah is Hashim Safi al-Din (assuming he himself was not killed), who heads Hezbollah’s Executive Council and is considered number 2 in the organization. He also has a “notable” family pedigree: He’s Nasrallah’s cousin, and his son is married to the daughter of Qassem Soleimani, the former Qods Force commander of the Revolutionary Guards. In 2006, Iran even recognized Safi al-Din as Nasrallah’s successor. However, he lacks Nasrallah’s charisma and status, and he’ll need to work hard to win the trust of the Axis.
3. The most difficult question of all—what’s next? Let’s start with the fact that Hezbollah has suffered a severe blow—some might even say a fatal one. There is no clear command and control system in place, no directive, and significant operational and tactical difficulties remain. And after all this optimism, let’s not forget that Hezbollah still has its advanced military capabilities. The organization has been building its strength for decades and even more so since 2006—including the array of precision missiles and, in general, an arsenal of missiles and rockets. So even if its abilities were significantly damaged (by about 50%, according to estimates), they still pose a threat.
4. We are entering an area of great uncertainty. Nasrallah was a figure whose strategies we knew and could predict. The vacuum left in his wake upends all the understandings and equations established regarding Hezbollah. Going forward, Israel will have hard work in analyzing and dealing with a new opponent in the post-Nasrallah era. In any case, given the multitude of operational successes, Israel should now formulate a smart exit strategy that achieves the ultimate goal of this war—the return of the hostages in Gaza to their loved ones.