Since the establishment of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force in 2015, China has doubled its nuclear arsenal and is currently avoiding any serious discussions on arms control. As a result, the United States has authorized significant changes to its nuclear deployment and usage guidelines.
For decades, Washington’s nuclear policy focused on managing potential nuclear threats from Russia and rogue states like North Korea. However, in response to changes in Chinese policy to achieve nuclear parity with the United States, Washington has had to adapt its strategy. The most notable change in American nuclear strategy is the National Security Council’s (NSC) recognition that the United States must now “deter Russia, the PRC, and North Korea simultaneously” shifting away from years of policy that addressed these threats individually.
These changes follow the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, amid accusations of significant Russian violations of the treaty, first signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987. With the treaty’s limitations lifted, Russia has shown little interest in negotiating a replacement or updating the New START Treaty, which expires in 2026 and limits both countries to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear weapons.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, combined with Moscow’s efforts to secure military support and diversify its military and technological supply chains, has had a catalyzing effect on global alignments. This had led to the formation of a loose “anti-hegemonic alignment” of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, aimed at undermining the US-backed liberal order. As a result, Washington has shifted its strategic thinking from seeking to reduce and modernize its nuclear arsenal to significantly expanding it in light of these geopolitical developments.
For Israel, these changes underscore significant shifts in the international system, particularly concerning Iran’s expanding defense and security ties with Russia and the broader “anti-hegemonic alignment.” With Washington’s shifting nuclear strategy, prioritizing nuclear threats from China, Russia, and North Korea, while focusing on the Indo-Pacific theater and the war in Ukraine, Israel must emphasize its role in a global security architecture aimed at countering China and its allies. This includes expanded security and intelligence cooperation not only with regional partners but also with American allies in East Asia. Iran’s position as a nuclear threshold state and its alignment with China, Russia, and North Korea requires Israel to view Iran not only as a standalone threat but as working loosely with others. Given these important changes, Israel should analyze and counter Iran’s actions and nuclear program within this wider geopolitical context.
Since the establishment of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force in 2015, China has doubled its nuclear arsenal and is currently avoiding any serious discussions on arms control. As a result, the United States has authorized significant changes to its nuclear deployment and usage guidelines.
For decades, Washington’s nuclear policy focused on managing potential nuclear threats from Russia and rogue states like North Korea. However, in response to changes in Chinese policy to achieve nuclear parity with the United States, Washington has had to adapt its strategy. The most notable change in American nuclear strategy is the National Security Council’s (NSC) recognition that the United States must now “deter Russia, the PRC, and North Korea simultaneously” shifting away from years of policy that addressed these threats individually.
These changes follow the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, amid accusations of significant Russian violations of the treaty, first signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987. With the treaty’s limitations lifted, Russia has shown little interest in negotiating a replacement or updating the New START Treaty, which expires in 2026 and limits both countries to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear weapons.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, combined with Moscow’s efforts to secure military support and diversify its military and technological supply chains, has had a catalyzing effect on global alignments. This had led to the formation of a loose “anti-hegemonic alignment” of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, aimed at undermining the US-backed liberal order. As a result, Washington has shifted its strategic thinking from seeking to reduce and modernize its nuclear arsenal to significantly expanding it in light of these geopolitical developments.
For Israel, these changes underscore significant shifts in the international system, particularly concerning Iran’s expanding defense and security ties with Russia and the broader “anti-hegemonic alignment.” With Washington’s shifting nuclear strategy, prioritizing nuclear threats from China, Russia, and North Korea, while focusing on the Indo-Pacific theater and the war in Ukraine, Israel must emphasize its role in a global security architecture aimed at countering China and its allies. This includes expanded security and intelligence cooperation not only with regional partners but also with American allies in East Asia. Iran’s position as a nuclear threshold state and its alignment with China, Russia, and North Korea requires Israel to view Iran not only as a standalone threat but as working loosely with others. Given these important changes, Israel should analyze and counter Iran’s actions and nuclear program within this wider geopolitical context.