Over the past weekend, the IDF increased the scope and intensity of its attacks in the Gaza Strip, including targeted assassinations and ground raids. The offensive effort is underway in parallel with efforts to free hostages held by Hamas and in preparation for the broad ground incursion. In the background are reports about Hamas's demand for a ceasefire of several days for the release of Israeli hostages, and undercurrents in the Israeli discourse regarding the need to release all the Palestinian prisoners in exchange for all those who were kidnapped and the bodies of Israelis in the hands of Hamas.
There is no doubt about the absolute commitment of the State of Israel to free all those abducted on October 7, to return the bodies of the soldiers Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, and return the two Israeli citizens Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed held by Hamas. Israel should make every possible effort to realize this commitment, but this effort must not impede or replace the main strategic move, which is the destruction of Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities. Therefore, the effort to free the kidnapped must occur alongside and be congruent with the main effort.
It is important to remain realistic and focused, and it is the duty of the Israeli government to properly present the situation correctly to the Israeli public and the international community. In this context, it is very important to understand Hamas and the logic of its actions. It will mock Israel and the international community, while cynically using the hostages through cognitive warfare, whose purpose is to psychologically enervate Israeli society and intensify the crisis of trust between it and its leadership, while consolidating its legitimacy to remain the source of power and authority. It is likely that no deal with Hamas would be possible without its making every effort to delay the event, to set conditions and limitations regarding any deal, and to exert greater pressure on all concerned at every stage. Moreover, Hamas does not hold all of the abductees and will always be able to claim, and likely will, that it is unable to negotiate on behalf of other organizations and citizens in the possession of abductees. And what then?
The strategic logic requires a complete reversal in thinking with reference to Hamas and Qatar, its primary and most significant supporter. At this time, total clarity is required, as the absolute delegitimization of Hamas and Qatar is a necessary outcome. The Gaza Strip was occupied by Hamas in June 2007, and if the residents of the Strip do not support Hamas, let them pressure Hamas by demanding that they accept their own lives in exchange for the abductees, who must be released quickly and without any conditions. If Qatar has a desire for life, the US must present it with an unequivocal ultimatum containing three demands: the immediate expulsion of all Hamas members and its leaders from its territory; the immediate cessation of all support for Hamas; and the immediate closure of the al-Jazeera network, which has become the most inciting and dangerous media outlet in the world, while igniting the streets of Arab capitals. If it doesn’t do this, the US will remove any aegis, and Qatar will remain on its own. A threat to the very survival of this state can certainly prompt a much more significant effort by it when it comes to the release of the kidnapped. The use of Qatar as a mediator and its positioning as the princess of regional diplomacy and the very conduct of negotiations with Hamas are a thorn in the side of Israeli strategy and in general. In fact, it undermines the logic of destroying the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas. At this time, there is no room for diplomatic sophistication and witty thinking in the style of on the one hand and on the other hand. Value and strategic clarity means no more sitting on the fence, one foot here and one foot there. At this time the question is "are you with us or against us," and nothing else.
To be sober, focused, and honest means to clarify and emphasize, repeatedly, that this war cannot be ended without a clear achievement, which means fatal damage to all the centers of gravity of the military and governmental infrastructure of Hamas in a way that paralyzes its ability to operate as a terrorist army, as a terrorist organization, and as a governmental-sovereign entity. Such an achievement cannot be realized without an extensive and prolonged ground maneuver, which also incurs costs. At the same time, Israel must underscore that revenge for every abductee who does not return alive will reach the ends of the earth, when all those involved, from first to last, will be hunted down and destroyed. A nation that longs for life must fight back and guarantee an unequivocal image of victory. Otherwise, we will be left a wounded and weak nation, whose communities along its borders will be abandoned, and we will become a nation frequently challenged by its neighbors from outside and from within, heightening the price of our existence to the point of an existential risk.
Over the past weekend, the IDF increased the scope and intensity of its attacks in the Gaza Strip, including targeted assassinations and ground raids. The offensive effort is underway in parallel with efforts to free hostages held by Hamas and in preparation for the broad ground incursion. In the background are reports about Hamas's demand for a ceasefire of several days for the release of Israeli hostages, and undercurrents in the Israeli discourse regarding the need to release all the Palestinian prisoners in exchange for all those who were kidnapped and the bodies of Israelis in the hands of Hamas.
There is no doubt about the absolute commitment of the State of Israel to free all those abducted on October 7, to return the bodies of the soldiers Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, and return the two Israeli citizens Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed held by Hamas. Israel should make every possible effort to realize this commitment, but this effort must not impede or replace the main strategic move, which is the destruction of Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities. Therefore, the effort to free the kidnapped must occur alongside and be congruent with the main effort.
It is important to remain realistic and focused, and it is the duty of the Israeli government to properly present the situation correctly to the Israeli public and the international community. In this context, it is very important to understand Hamas and the logic of its actions. It will mock Israel and the international community, while cynically using the hostages through cognitive warfare, whose purpose is to psychologically enervate Israeli society and intensify the crisis of trust between it and its leadership, while consolidating its legitimacy to remain the source of power and authority. It is likely that no deal with Hamas would be possible without its making every effort to delay the event, to set conditions and limitations regarding any deal, and to exert greater pressure on all concerned at every stage. Moreover, Hamas does not hold all of the abductees and will always be able to claim, and likely will, that it is unable to negotiate on behalf of other organizations and citizens in the possession of abductees. And what then?
The strategic logic requires a complete reversal in thinking with reference to Hamas and Qatar, its primary and most significant supporter. At this time, total clarity is required, as the absolute delegitimization of Hamas and Qatar is a necessary outcome. The Gaza Strip was occupied by Hamas in June 2007, and if the residents of the Strip do not support Hamas, let them pressure Hamas by demanding that they accept their own lives in exchange for the abductees, who must be released quickly and without any conditions. If Qatar has a desire for life, the US must present it with an unequivocal ultimatum containing three demands: the immediate expulsion of all Hamas members and its leaders from its territory; the immediate cessation of all support for Hamas; and the immediate closure of the al-Jazeera network, which has become the most inciting and dangerous media outlet in the world, while igniting the streets of Arab capitals. If it doesn’t do this, the US will remove any aegis, and Qatar will remain on its own. A threat to the very survival of this state can certainly prompt a much more significant effort by it when it comes to the release of the kidnapped. The use of Qatar as a mediator and its positioning as the princess of regional diplomacy and the very conduct of negotiations with Hamas are a thorn in the side of Israeli strategy and in general. In fact, it undermines the logic of destroying the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas. At this time, there is no room for diplomatic sophistication and witty thinking in the style of on the one hand and on the other hand. Value and strategic clarity means no more sitting on the fence, one foot here and one foot there. At this time the question is "are you with us or against us," and nothing else.
To be sober, focused, and honest means to clarify and emphasize, repeatedly, that this war cannot be ended without a clear achievement, which means fatal damage to all the centers of gravity of the military and governmental infrastructure of Hamas in a way that paralyzes its ability to operate as a terrorist army, as a terrorist organization, and as a governmental-sovereign entity. Such an achievement cannot be realized without an extensive and prolonged ground maneuver, which also incurs costs. At the same time, Israel must underscore that revenge for every abductee who does not return alive will reach the ends of the earth, when all those involved, from first to last, will be hunted down and destroyed. A nation that longs for life must fight back and guarantee an unequivocal image of victory. Otherwise, we will be left a wounded and weak nation, whose communities along its borders will be abandoned, and we will become a nation frequently challenged by its neighbors from outside and from within, heightening the price of our existence to the point of an existential risk.