Before approaching the matter at hand, a word about the context. A few weeks ago, the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff warned about Israel’s grave situation vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear program. They presented data and revealed a new underground site. In other words, today it is easy to conclude that President Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear agreement was a strategic mistake. Israel's strategic situation has worsened. It is also easy to conclude that any deviation from the path currently pursued by Iran has a positive component.
Now, for the negative aspects of the understandings between the US and Iran:
- Iran continues to be in effect a nuclear threshold state. There is no reduction in capabilities, only a freeze in the situation.
- Iran will receive about $20 billion in frozen assets. A small portion will be allocated for military buildup, and the majority for internal needs.
And the positive aspects:
- The situation stops deteriorating. Iran will no longer accumulate 60% enriched nuclear material and will not break out to 90%.
- Israel buys precious time. Since Israel’s projection of deterrence is currently not high, especially when the Prime Minister has not yet been invited to the White House, the military threat, which is directly related to the projection of strong Israeli relations with the US, is perceived as ineffective. We gain time that will allow us to better prepare for an alternative plan.
- There is the possibility of American recompense in the form of assistance in promoting normalization with Saudi Arabia (provided that Israel swallow the issue of a Saudi uranium enrichment circle – not a simple issue in itself).
- There is a possibility of security returns that will ensure Israel's qualitative military edge for years to come.
The bottom line: if we were in the original nuclear agreement, our situation would have been better. When choosing between bad options, the current understandings are better than nothing. The road to a credible military threat goes much further in the Oval Office in the White House than in flashy exercises of fighter jets refueling over the Mediterranean Sea.
Before approaching the matter at hand, a word about the context. A few weeks ago, the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff warned about Israel’s grave situation vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear program. They presented data and revealed a new underground site. In other words, today it is easy to conclude that President Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear agreement was a strategic mistake. Israel's strategic situation has worsened. It is also easy to conclude that any deviation from the path currently pursued by Iran has a positive component.
Now, for the negative aspects of the understandings between the US and Iran:
And the positive aspects:
The bottom line: if we were in the original nuclear agreement, our situation would have been better. When choosing between bad options, the current understandings are better than nothing. The road to a credible military threat goes much further in the Oval Office in the White House than in flashy exercises of fighter jets refueling over the Mediterranean Sea.