Raz Zimmt, Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research program: “This morning, it’s very tempting to dwell on all the worst-case scenarios and the most extreme responses Iran might adopt. However, it’s important to remember that the Iranian regime currently finds itself in an unprecedented position of weakness—not only due to the degradation of its capabilities over the past week (and the collapse of the Axis of Resistance over the past year), but primarily because any severe response might expose the regime to a threat against its very survival.”
Eldad Shavit, Head of the U.S. research program: “Following the strike, the United States seeks a swift diplomatic agreement and hopes to avoid a prolonged war. At the same time, it’s also preparing for escalation if Iran retaliates against American targets. The internal debate over continued military involvement will intensify as it becomes clear that Iran maintains its defiance and fails to respond to demands and/or if it turns out that it still retains nuclear capabilities.”
Sima Shine, Senior Researcher and former Director of the "Iran and the Shiite Axis" research program: “Iran faces a difficult dilemma regarding how to respond. It has no interest in intensifying American military involvement. It has several options at its disposal, starting with moves against the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), such as expelling inspectors and possibly exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty. There’s also the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb via the Houthis. Against Israel, attacks are likely to continue until a deliberate or forced decision for a ceasefire is reached.”
Danny Citrinowicz, Senior Researcher in the “Iran and the Shi'ite Axis” research program: “It’s important to remember that Iran had ample time to prepare for the strike, so it must be taken into account that it likely evacuated some of the centrifuges and enriched material from Isfahan. Accordingly, it’s entirely possible that Iran still retains some nuclear capabilities even after this strike.”
Avishay Ben Sasson-Gordis, Researcher in the Israel–U.S. Policy Program: “For many in the United States, the strike brings back painful memories of the American entanglement in Iraq and Afghanistan—despite the administration’s statements that it still seeks a deal. A successful US effort to prevent escalation of the conflict would allay those concerns and deliver President Trump a foreign policy win, a realm where he has mostly faced frustration since entering office.”
Galia Lavi, Deputy Director of The Israel-China Policy Center: “China officially has not yet responded to the US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Until now, China has shown a degree of restraint in its statements, expressing opposition to the violation of Iranian sovereignty and calling for a ceasefire and return to negotiations. Even now, China is unlikely to increase its involvement on Iran’s side and will likely limit itself to condemnation at the UN, calls to calm the situation, and reiterating its willingness to assist with diplomatic efforts.”
Rémi Daniel, head of the Europe research program: “Europeans woke up this morning with mixed feelings. The removal of the Iranian nuclear threat is good news for them, but the Israeli–American course of action contradicts their core principles and preference for dialogue and negotiation. Europe fears an Iranian response that could also damage its own interests. The events of the past week once again highlight Europe’s irrelevance in this arena and the internal divisions among European countries on the issue. Still, Europe may play an important role in shaping a new agreement with Iran—if momentum shifts in that direction.”
Gallia Lindenstrauss, Research Fellow on Turkey and the Kurds: “Turkey, which has backed Tehran and condemned ‘Israeli aggression’ since the start of the escalation with Iran, now finds itself in a dilemma following the entry of the United States into the conflict. President Erdoğan will be hesitant to risk his good relations with the US president. Therefore, it’s expected that Turkey will continue to push for a negotiated agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and seek to take an active part in mediation efforts.”
Raz Zimmt, Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research program: “This morning, it’s very tempting to dwell on all the worst-case scenarios and the most extreme responses Iran might adopt. However, it’s important to remember that the Iranian regime currently finds itself in an unprecedented position of weakness—not only due to the degradation of its capabilities over the past week (and the collapse of the Axis of Resistance over the past year), but primarily because any severe response might expose the regime to a threat against its very survival.”
Eldad Shavit, Head of the U.S. research program: “Following the strike, the United States seeks a swift diplomatic agreement and hopes to avoid a prolonged war. At the same time, it’s also preparing for escalation if Iran retaliates against American targets. The internal debate over continued military involvement will intensify as it becomes clear that Iran maintains its defiance and fails to respond to demands and/or if it turns out that it still retains nuclear capabilities.”
Sima Shine, Senior Researcher and former Director of the "Iran and the Shiite Axis" research program: “Iran faces a difficult dilemma regarding how to respond. It has no interest in intensifying American military involvement. It has several options at its disposal, starting with moves against the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), such as expelling inspectors and possibly exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty. There’s also the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb via the Houthis. Against Israel, attacks are likely to continue until a deliberate or forced decision for a ceasefire is reached.”
Danny Citrinowicz, Senior Researcher in the “Iran and the Shi'ite Axis” research program: “It’s important to remember that Iran had ample time to prepare for the strike, so it must be taken into account that it likely evacuated some of the centrifuges and enriched material from Isfahan. Accordingly, it’s entirely possible that Iran still retains some nuclear capabilities even after this strike.”
Avishay Ben Sasson-Gordis, Researcher in the Israel–U.S. Policy Program: “For many in the United States, the strike brings back painful memories of the American entanglement in Iraq and Afghanistan—despite the administration’s statements that it still seeks a deal. A successful US effort to prevent escalation of the conflict would allay those concerns and deliver President Trump a foreign policy win, a realm where he has mostly faced frustration since entering office.”
Galia Lavi, Deputy Director of The Israel-China Policy Center: “China officially has not yet responded to the US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Until now, China has shown a degree of restraint in its statements, expressing opposition to the violation of Iranian sovereignty and calling for a ceasefire and return to negotiations. Even now, China is unlikely to increase its involvement on Iran’s side and will likely limit itself to condemnation at the UN, calls to calm the situation, and reiterating its willingness to assist with diplomatic efforts.”
Rémi Daniel, head of the Europe research program: “Europeans woke up this morning with mixed feelings. The removal of the Iranian nuclear threat is good news for them, but the Israeli–American course of action contradicts their core principles and preference for dialogue and negotiation. Europe fears an Iranian response that could also damage its own interests. The events of the past week once again highlight Europe’s irrelevance in this arena and the internal divisions among European countries on the issue. Still, Europe may play an important role in shaping a new agreement with Iran—if momentum shifts in that direction.”
Gallia Lindenstrauss, Research Fellow on Turkey and the Kurds: “Turkey, which has backed Tehran and condemned ‘Israeli aggression’ since the start of the escalation with Iran, now finds itself in a dilemma following the entry of the United States into the conflict. President Erdoğan will be hesitant to risk his good relations with the US president. Therefore, it’s expected that Turkey will continue to push for a negotiated agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and seek to take an active part in mediation efforts.”