Since the beginning of the war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been caught between his commitment to the resistance front – particularly Iran and Hezbollah, which enabled him to remain in power – and the desire to avoid a confrontation with Israel and endanger the survival of his regime. Israel, for its part, is doing everything to signal to Assad that it is better for him to stay out of the campaign. On the third day of the war, Israel reportedly warned the President that his joining the war would trigger a broad reaction from Israel, the destruction of Damascus, and even the elimination of Assad and his family. This joins the ongoing thwarting of transfers of weapons and the attack on the international airports in Syria. Israel continues to project “business as usual,” in the sense that it does not allow the militias to arm themselves with weapons, even during war.
But the significant messages from Israel did not succeed in preventing the flare-up of friction in the Golan Heights. The Shia militias led by the Revolutionary Guards have deployed their forces on the border with Israel and joined the Palestinian factions in the Golan Heights, with the aim of challenging Israel from this front as well. The Palestinian factions launched rockets toward northern Israel. In response, Israel attacked Syrian army posts and the international airport in Aleppo, and disseminated leaflets warning the Syrian army against continuing to launch rockets, even though it was not the perpetrator. According to reports, at least eight soldiers in the Syrian army were killed in attacks attributed to Israel.
Thus, Israel continues to exact a price from the Syrian regime, being the sovereign, even though it is not clear what ability it has to restrain the elements operating from its territory. The continued actions of the Palestinian and pro-Iranian factions in the region may lead to an escalation that will ignite another front for Israel, even not at the direction of the Syrian regime and against its wishes. Now the question remains, how will Assad act and how far will he go in order to prevent the confrontation with Israel. Will he stir up tensions with Iran, which encourages the activity from his territory, or will he risk opening a front with Israel that may destabilize his regime?
Since the beginning of the war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been caught between his commitment to the resistance front – particularly Iran and Hezbollah, which enabled him to remain in power – and the desire to avoid a confrontation with Israel and endanger the survival of his regime. Israel, for its part, is doing everything to signal to Assad that it is better for him to stay out of the campaign. On the third day of the war, Israel reportedly warned the President that his joining the war would trigger a broad reaction from Israel, the destruction of Damascus, and even the elimination of Assad and his family. This joins the ongoing thwarting of transfers of weapons and the attack on the international airports in Syria. Israel continues to project “business as usual,” in the sense that it does not allow the militias to arm themselves with weapons, even during war.
But the significant messages from Israel did not succeed in preventing the flare-up of friction in the Golan Heights. The Shia militias led by the Revolutionary Guards have deployed their forces on the border with Israel and joined the Palestinian factions in the Golan Heights, with the aim of challenging Israel from this front as well. The Palestinian factions launched rockets toward northern Israel. In response, Israel attacked Syrian army posts and the international airport in Aleppo, and disseminated leaflets warning the Syrian army against continuing to launch rockets, even though it was not the perpetrator. According to reports, at least eight soldiers in the Syrian army were killed in attacks attributed to Israel.
Thus, Israel continues to exact a price from the Syrian regime, being the sovereign, even though it is not clear what ability it has to restrain the elements operating from its territory. The continued actions of the Palestinian and pro-Iranian factions in the region may lead to an escalation that will ignite another front for Israel, even not at the direction of the Syrian regime and against its wishes. Now the question remains, how will Assad act and how far will he go in order to prevent the confrontation with Israel. Will he stir up tensions with Iran, which encourages the activity from his territory, or will he risk opening a front with Israel that may destabilize his regime?