The complications during the operation in Jenin on June 19, 2023 point to another change in the current campaign against terrorism, which began with Operation Break the Wave in May 2022. Although this is not the first incident when explosives were used in the arena, it is the first time that significant explosive devices were operated. In this case, there was significant damage to IDF armored vehicles, and seven soldiers were injured. Furthermore, the incident did not end with the detonation of the explosive devices, but led, rather, to an exchange of fire that lasted for many hours and required reinforcements and, for the first time since the second intifada, even the use of combat helicopters.
The Palestinians have demonstrated the ability to organize and recruit many armed operatives, and above all, motivation and determination to confront the IDF forces, while not deterred by IDF firepower. The June 19 event, which ended with a Palestinian victory parade displaying the charred remnants of the IDF vehicles that were damaged in the incident, became a kind of formative narrative event. The armed resistance withstood a larger and stronger IDF force, and even succeeded in inflicting damage and casualties on the Israeli side. This message trickles down and inspires, and thereby heightens the level of motivation.
The general atmosphere – with the lack of governance on the one hand and the expansion of terrorist circles using explosive charges and Iranian-Hezbollah involvement on the other – is reminiscent of southern Lebanon in the 1980s. The potential for escalation and spillover has risen, and Israel may find itself in a much wider and more significant round of fighting at a time and under conditions that are not necessarily favorable.
The hornet's nest of Jenin has become a Palestinian national symbol and another layer in the ethos of Palestinian heroism and resistance. This in turn erodes Israel's ability to deter, and testifies to the limited relevance of its current modus operandi. The mode of operation based on the logic of containing and preventing the spillover of terrorism from Jenin to the West Bank and into Israel, based on accurate intelligence and commando operations by special units and covert forces, succeeds in yielding impressive tactical achievements, but fails to produce a strategic impact. Compared to the scope of terrorism in May 2022, we are on an upward and escalating trend, both in the number and quality of attacks, the number of people joining the terrorist cycle, and the number of victims on both sides.
Given the existing reality in Jenin and the Palestinian Authority territories, the narrative of the Palestinian resistance, and the Palestinian Authority's governmental vacuum in the region, clinging to the existing modus operandi will not lead to an improvement in the situation. Israel is required to rethink approach in the area. A broad military operation in the Jenin area should be prepared, while encircling and completely isolating it for a limited period of time and entering the area with a large and significant military force for the purpose of dismantling the terrorist infrastructure there and preparing the conditions for the return of the Palestinian Authority to more effective control. The military move must be significant and its results unequivocal, both to neutralize the terrorist infrastructure in the area and to produce the required psychological effect.
The elimination of the terrorist infrastructure in the area must be viewed not only in the Palestinian context. The move will also harm Iranian efforts to undermine stability and security in the region and disrupt the Iranian strategy, which seeks to activate the Palestinian arena as another front against Israel. The June 19 event must be seen as a warning sign and a wake-up call. From Israel’s standpoint, what was and what is must change, and the sooner the better.
The complications during the operation in Jenin on June 19, 2023 point to another change in the current campaign against terrorism, which began with Operation Break the Wave in May 2022. Although this is not the first incident when explosives were used in the arena, it is the first time that significant explosive devices were operated. In this case, there was significant damage to IDF armored vehicles, and seven soldiers were injured. Furthermore, the incident did not end with the detonation of the explosive devices, but led, rather, to an exchange of fire that lasted for many hours and required reinforcements and, for the first time since the second intifada, even the use of combat helicopters.
The Palestinians have demonstrated the ability to organize and recruit many armed operatives, and above all, motivation and determination to confront the IDF forces, while not deterred by IDF firepower. The June 19 event, which ended with a Palestinian victory parade displaying the charred remnants of the IDF vehicles that were damaged in the incident, became a kind of formative narrative event. The armed resistance withstood a larger and stronger IDF force, and even succeeded in inflicting damage and casualties on the Israeli side. This message trickles down and inspires, and thereby heightens the level of motivation.
The general atmosphere – with the lack of governance on the one hand and the expansion of terrorist circles using explosive charges and Iranian-Hezbollah involvement on the other – is reminiscent of southern Lebanon in the 1980s. The potential for escalation and spillover has risen, and Israel may find itself in a much wider and more significant round of fighting at a time and under conditions that are not necessarily favorable.
The hornet's nest of Jenin has become a Palestinian national symbol and another layer in the ethos of Palestinian heroism and resistance. This in turn erodes Israel's ability to deter, and testifies to the limited relevance of its current modus operandi. The mode of operation based on the logic of containing and preventing the spillover of terrorism from Jenin to the West Bank and into Israel, based on accurate intelligence and commando operations by special units and covert forces, succeeds in yielding impressive tactical achievements, but fails to produce a strategic impact. Compared to the scope of terrorism in May 2022, we are on an upward and escalating trend, both in the number and quality of attacks, the number of people joining the terrorist cycle, and the number of victims on both sides.
Given the existing reality in Jenin and the Palestinian Authority territories, the narrative of the Palestinian resistance, and the Palestinian Authority's governmental vacuum in the region, clinging to the existing modus operandi will not lead to an improvement in the situation. Israel is required to rethink approach in the area. A broad military operation in the Jenin area should be prepared, while encircling and completely isolating it for a limited period of time and entering the area with a large and significant military force for the purpose of dismantling the terrorist infrastructure there and preparing the conditions for the return of the Palestinian Authority to more effective control. The military move must be significant and its results unequivocal, both to neutralize the terrorist infrastructure in the area and to produce the required psychological effect.
The elimination of the terrorist infrastructure in the area must be viewed not only in the Palestinian context. The move will also harm Iranian efforts to undermine stability and security in the region and disrupt the Iranian strategy, which seeks to activate the Palestinian arena as another front against Israel. The June 19 event must be seen as a warning sign and a wake-up call. From Israel’s standpoint, what was and what is must change, and the sooner the better.