After three months of relative calm during the political transition, the new regime in Syria is facing a serious security challenge: a deliberate attack on its forces by supporters of the Assad regime from the Alawite region in the west of the country. According to some reports, more than a thousand people from the Alawite community have been killed, most of them civilians.
This is a grave development for President al-Sharaa, particularly given his efforts to project a moderate, inclusive, and tolerant image.
Three key lessons emerge from these events:
Limited control over the territory—Although the regime didn’t initiate the attack, the events highlight its weak grip on the ground and its difficulty in enforcing authority over forces acting in its name. Moreover, the incident reveals the strength of opposition from Assad’s supporters, who have managed to turn a political confrontation into a sectarian conflict, increasing pressure on the new regime. Incidentally, it’s worth noting that social media is rife with disinformation and fake news, including images of casualties attributed to the current events but actually taken from the peak of the civil war under President Assad.
Condemnation of violence but insufficient action—Al-Sharaa took a statesmanlike approach, delivering a public speech calling for calm and pledging to severely punish those responsible for harming civilians. He also ordered humanitarian aid to be sent to the affected areas. However, in light of the distressing videos that surfaced over the weekend, the impact of these measures seems negligible.
Damage to the regime’s status and international opportunities—Even if the violence subsides in the short term, its damage will be felt in the long run. Among the Druze and Kurdish communities, resistance to disarming and handing over weapons to the regime is likely to grow. Meanwhile, the international community’s willingness to lift sanctions on Syria—previously conditioned on the continuation of a peaceful and inclusive transition process—may be diminished.
In parallel, voices are emerging from within the Alawite sect calling on Israel to assist them, similar to its support for the Druze.
Syria is currently in one of its most fragile periods since the fall of Assad. Syria stands at a crossroads: the end of a bloody chapter or the start of an endless cycle of sectarian violence, which could bring down al-Sharaa’s ambitious project. Only time will tell.
After three months of relative calm during the political transition, the new regime in Syria is facing a serious security challenge: a deliberate attack on its forces by supporters of the Assad regime from the Alawite region in the west of the country. According to some reports, more than a thousand people from the Alawite community have been killed, most of them civilians.
This is a grave development for President al-Sharaa, particularly given his efforts to project a moderate, inclusive, and tolerant image.
Three key lessons emerge from these events:
Limited control over the territory—Although the regime didn’t initiate the attack, the events highlight its weak grip on the ground and its difficulty in enforcing authority over forces acting in its name. Moreover, the incident reveals the strength of opposition from Assad’s supporters, who have managed to turn a political confrontation into a sectarian conflict, increasing pressure on the new regime. Incidentally, it’s worth noting that social media is rife with disinformation and fake news, including images of casualties attributed to the current events but actually taken from the peak of the civil war under President Assad.
Condemnation of violence but insufficient action—Al-Sharaa took a statesmanlike approach, delivering a public speech calling for calm and pledging to severely punish those responsible for harming civilians. He also ordered humanitarian aid to be sent to the affected areas. However, in light of the distressing videos that surfaced over the weekend, the impact of these measures seems negligible.
Damage to the regime’s status and international opportunities—Even if the violence subsides in the short term, its damage will be felt in the long run. Among the Druze and Kurdish communities, resistance to disarming and handing over weapons to the regime is likely to grow. Meanwhile, the international community’s willingness to lift sanctions on Syria—previously conditioned on the continuation of a peaceful and inclusive transition process—may be diminished.
In parallel, voices are emerging from within the Alawite sect calling on Israel to assist them, similar to its support for the Druze.
Syria is currently in one of its most fragile periods since the fall of Assad. Syria stands at a crossroads: the end of a bloody chapter or the start of an endless cycle of sectarian violence, which could bring down al-Sharaa’s ambitious project. Only time will tell.