Hamas is at a breaking point. When examining the Palestinian discourse on social media six months after the outbreak of the “Swords of Iron” war, one trend stands out. While Hamas’s ideology (i.e., the use of violent struggle against Israel to liberate Palestine) is at the peak of its popularity in Gaza and the West Bank, a different trend is apparent regarding the actual control of Hamas and the other resistance organizations.
Palestinians in Gaza refer to three issues that they believe are a result of this reverse trend:
- An authentic and openly critical discourse about Hamas—Gazans are engaging in discernable criticism of Hamas that wasn’t present in the first six months of the war. This suggests that fear of the organization has diminished due to its weakening and absence from the public domain.
- A drop in prices—Gazans in the north, center, and south of the Strip attribute this to the absence of Hamas officials at land crossings (Rafah), UNRWA centers (central camps), markets, and stalls in the north of the Strip. Additionally, the influx of humanitarian aid has contributed to a significant decrease in the prices of food, products, and medicines. Customs are no longer collected by Hamas, and the threat of looting, robbery, and theft of aid from peddlers and merchants has diminished compared to the first quarter of the war.
- Law and order—Initially, during the distribution of humanitarian aid, Hamas closely accompanied the process, but incidents of looting and attacks on food shipments have now almost ceased, according to the Gazan public.
A similar trend can be observed in the West Bank, indicating a significant decrease in the activity and visibility of resistance organizations in the refugee camps. Some argue that the IDF’s intensive operations against resistance organizations in the camps, combined with Hamas’s weakened command from Gaza and the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri and his team in Beirut (in early January), have severely impaired the organizations’ ability to act consistently and systematically. It’s worth noting that isolated individuals or small groups still carry out actions in the West Bank.
What changes can be expected depends greatly on Israel’s military and political activities. Israel should continue to weaken Hamas and the resistance organizations’ military and civilian capabilities in Gaza and the West Bank, while simultaneously establishing an effective and sustainable governing alternative. Ceasing military action without creating a civilian alternative during the early stages of this breaking point will yield the opposite result.
Hamas is at a breaking point. When examining the Palestinian discourse on social media six months after the outbreak of the “Swords of Iron” war, one trend stands out. While Hamas’s ideology (i.e., the use of violent struggle against Israel to liberate Palestine) is at the peak of its popularity in Gaza and the West Bank, a different trend is apparent regarding the actual control of Hamas and the other resistance organizations.
Palestinians in Gaza refer to three issues that they believe are a result of this reverse trend:
A similar trend can be observed in the West Bank, indicating a significant decrease in the activity and visibility of resistance organizations in the refugee camps. Some argue that the IDF’s intensive operations against resistance organizations in the camps, combined with Hamas’s weakened command from Gaza and the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri and his team in Beirut (in early January), have severely impaired the organizations’ ability to act consistently and systematically. It’s worth noting that isolated individuals or small groups still carry out actions in the West Bank.
What changes can be expected depends greatly on Israel’s military and political activities. Israel should continue to weaken Hamas and the resistance organizations’ military and civilian capabilities in Gaza and the West Bank, while simultaneously establishing an effective and sustainable governing alternative. Ceasing military action without creating a civilian alternative during the early stages of this breaking point will yield the opposite result.