As of this morning (Sunday), Israel has entered a new phase with no framework for releasing the hostages, no fighting, and no negotiations. This is a stage of uncertainty and transition.
The negotiations that were supposed to take place between the parties were to focus on three key issues: (1) the terms of the hostage release (how many terrorists are freed for each Israeli hostage), (2) the terms of reconstruction (how many trucks, caravans, and other types of aid enter Gaza), and (3) the decision to end the war. Negotiations on these three issues were scheduled to begin on day 16 of the framework, but they did not. According to the original plan, as long as the negotiations continued, Israel was expected to allow 600 aid trucks per day and fully withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor by day 50—neither of which is happening. It is important to note that Hamas has violated the agreement, including by failing to release Shiri Bibas on time and according to the agreed framework, and by staging humiliating, grotesque ceremonies.
Where do we go from here? The three main options are:
- Gradual pressure escalation, leading back to fighting—This approach involves halting humanitarian aid (as Israel did this morning), resuming strikes and targeted assassinations, and eventually implementing a large-scale evacuation of the Palestinian population, phased territorial conquests, and expanded military action—to increase pressure on Hamas and improve conditions for future hostage negotiations.
- Maintaining the ceasefire while negotiating a new deal (“Phase B”)—Possibly under the “Witkoff Framework,” in which hostages would be released in two phases without requiring Israel to commit to ending the war. This framework would likely include different terms for prisoner releases and ongoing reconstruction incentives (trucks, caravans, and so forth).
- The ultimatum option—Israel, with US backing, sets a deadline for Hamas to release all the hostages in exchange for a permanent ceasefire (a loosely defined commitment to ending the war), humanitarian concessions, and a mass Palestinian prisoner release. If Hamas does not comply, Israel resumes full-scale warfare.
What is Israel’s best course of action? Above all, not waste time. Time works against us—Hamas is growing stronger, making a return to war more difficult; the hostages are suffering in the tunnels; and we are losing the Americans’ interest and the momentum of their pressure. From this perspective, the time-limited ultimatum appears to best serve Israel’s interests—despite the inherent risks involved.
First published on N12
As of this morning (Sunday), Israel has entered a new phase with no framework for releasing the hostages, no fighting, and no negotiations. This is a stage of uncertainty and transition.
The negotiations that were supposed to take place between the parties were to focus on three key issues: (1) the terms of the hostage release (how many terrorists are freed for each Israeli hostage), (2) the terms of reconstruction (how many trucks, caravans, and other types of aid enter Gaza), and (3) the decision to end the war. Negotiations on these three issues were scheduled to begin on day 16 of the framework, but they did not. According to the original plan, as long as the negotiations continued, Israel was expected to allow 600 aid trucks per day and fully withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor by day 50—neither of which is happening. It is important to note that Hamas has violated the agreement, including by failing to release Shiri Bibas on time and according to the agreed framework, and by staging humiliating, grotesque ceremonies.
Where do we go from here? The three main options are:
What is Israel’s best course of action? Above all, not waste time. Time works against us—Hamas is growing stronger, making a return to war more difficult; the hostages are suffering in the tunnels; and we are losing the Americans’ interest and the momentum of their pressure. From this perspective, the time-limited ultimatum appears to best serve Israel’s interests—despite the inherent risks involved.
First published on N12